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05:00
19/05
Caution still up in the air as the US-Iran conflict drags on

It looked like risk sentiment was bound to take a big knock yesterday but not for some mix of headlines to start the week. First, we had Iranian media saying that the US is to propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped to bring risk trades off their lows before the news was denied by US officials later on. That led to the market mood being not as bad as it was from the start of European trading.After which, US president Trump helped to lift the mood further in calling off a large-scale military strike against Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday. He said that the suspension was at the request of Gulf leaders, to allow for peace talks to continue. He then went on to say that there is a "good chance" of a deal now that the strike has been called off.That at least helped to see Wall Street salvage something towards the end of yesterday.But as we get into the new day, we're starting to see caution get thrown back up in the air. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while bond yields continue to stick at the highs. 10-year yields in the US are at 4.60% with 30-year yields at 5.14% on the day.In other markets, the dollar is also gaining slight ground with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1635 and USD/JPY starting to border near the 159.00 level. On the latter, intervention risks remain high after Japan finance minister delivered another warning shot here. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is also down 0.5% to 0.7130 on the day.In the commodities space, oil prices are off highs from yesterday but are still keeping elevated. Brent crude is holding near $110 while WTI crude (July contract) is sticking at around $102.70, with the latter well off the overnight lows of $98.60.And looking to precious metals, gold is back down by 0.5% to $4,541 with silver down 1.9% to $76.17 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ForexLive · Forex · · Read source ↗
03:45
19/05
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY had a look at 159

ICYMI (Monday): Japan signals FX intervention readiness, vowing to shield US bond marketICYMI - Iran launches Bitcoin-backed ship insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz transitJapan economy minister backs recovery but warns of Middle East conflict fallout riskRBA minutes: Eight of nine members backed May hike as inflation expectations risk grewJapan Q1 GDP beats forecasts at 2.1% but Iran war energy shock threatens momentumICYMI - EU plans supply chain rules forcing firms to source key parts from three suppliersPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8375 (vs. estimate at 6.7909)PM Albanese secures 600,000 barrels of jet fuel from China as Australia shores up suppliesAustralian May consumer confidence +3.5% m/m to 83.0. Yippee. Prior 80.1USD/JPY on approach to 159! How you left, Ministry of Finance?Japan Q1 GDP 2.1% y/y (beats expected of 1.7%)Hunter: Inflation expectations drifting higher is an elevated risk RBA cannot ignoreMorgan Stanley warns bond rout could trigger equity correction, still sees S&P500 @ 8300New Zealand inflation pressures build as producer prices rise and retail sales dipMUFG: Dollar set to extend gains as Warsh Fed signals hawkish shift on inflationOil futures have reopened for trade, lower on Iran optimismTrump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pauseTrump announces expansion of cheaper drug schemeinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whipICYMI - Goldman cuts US recession odds to 25% as Hormuz closure impact stays containedRBA to address inflation risk from Middle East conflict at Sydney forum. Hunter no dove.US stocks close mixed. Dow closes higher. S&P and Nadaq close lowerSummary:Trump announced a delay to planned military strikes on Iran following requests from Gulf allies, supporting risk sentiment and weighing on the USD and oil prices during the US Monday sessionTrump followed up with upbeat afternoon comments, saying there appears to be a good chance a nuclear deal with Iran can be reached, though repeated claims of having won the war have eroded his credibility with marketsThe USD recovered modest ground during the Asian session, with AUD, NZD, GBP and JPY all retreating; USD/JPY pushed toward 159 before stabilisingJapan Q1 GDP grew an annualised 2.1%, beating the 1.7% forecast, though analysts warn the Iran war energy shock is set to slow growth sharply in Q2RBA May meeting minutes showed the board raised the cash rate to 4.35%, its third consecutive hike, while signalling the move gives it time to assess the conflict's impact, flagging a possible pause in June; August remains live and event-dependentThe PBOC set the yuan midpoint at its strongest level since 24 March 2023The Nikkei reversed early gains of more than 1% to fall 0.64% to 60,429.76 by the midday break, set for a fourth consecutive session of losses; the broader Topix rose 0.37% to 3,840.7The South Korean won fell 0.7% during the sessionIndia's state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the second time in less than a weekUS Vice President JD Vance will deliver the White House press briefing on Wednesday at 1pm Eastern timeMonday's US session was defined by a sharp pivot in geopolitical sentiment after President Donald Trump announced he was delaying planned military strikes against Iran following requests from Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, who argued that a diplomatic resolution was within reach. The news provided a meaningful boost to risk assets, weighed on the US dollar and pulled oil prices lower as markets repriced the immediate probability of a military escalation.Trump reinforced the tone in afternoon remarks, saying there appeared to be a good chance a nuclear deal with Iran could be worked out. Markets received the comments with cautious optimism rather than conviction, however. Trump's repeated assertions over recent months that the US had effectively won the conflict have worn thin with traders, and the credibilit

ForexLive · Forex · · Read source ↗

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