As the broader market focus stays on the fallout from the Middle East crisis, it is easy to expect inflation to keep running up on the back of higher energy prices. But as we look to the UK CPI report later, the expectation is for price pressures to ease in April. That at least on an annual basis. So, what's the deal here?Let's take a quick look as to why that is and what can we expect.The headline numbers are still very much expected to be impacted by higher energy prices from the US-Iran conflict. That should lead to monthly inflation jumping by around 0.9%. However, the annual estimate is expected to ease to 3.0% (from 3.3% previously) due to a couple of adjustments and base effects.In particular, services inflation is the one that will be the most impacted.Firstly, there was the data error by the Department of Transport in overstating the inflation numbers for April 2025. As noted by the ONS: "The incorrect data overstate the number of vehicles subject to Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) rates applicable in the first year of registration."The error led to a raised CPI estimate of around 0.12%, which was not corrected for after. However, the impact on services inflation is roughly double that when you account for the more detailed breakdown.Secondly, there was the big jump in water and sewage prices in April 2025 due to an industry-wide infrastructure upgrade. The hike was frontloaded as part of a 5-year investment plan and averaged around £123 or roughly 26%. So far this year, the same category is only suggesting a 5% price increase. So taking that into account, it could lead to another 0.2% drop in headline annual inflation.Thirdly, MNI points out that there will also be an offsetting drop in electricity and gas prices amid "policy costs" being removed from bills during the autumn budget."This is the case for both the 60% of consumers on price cap tariffs and the majority of the 40% of consumers on fixed price tariffs (although there were some policy costs that didn’t need to be paid by smaller suppliers so the reduction for these will be less). The BOE is forecasting a -0.34% change in contribution from this alone."And lastly, there will also be other base effects to account for amid stronger airfares and social rents in April 2025. So, those will also reflect a decline when weighed up against April this year.In terms of core prices, the annual estimate is expected at 2.6% - marking a drop from 3.1% in March. That will largely be tied to easing in services inflation on the caveats pointed out above. As such, it is not much reason to think of it being a material change to the UK inflation trend. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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Gold (XAU/USD) drops to a fresh low since March 30 following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the $4,500 mark on Wednesday, and seems vulnerable to a further decline amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $103.20 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price trades with mild losses as traders weigh mixed signals from US President Donald Trump on whether the United States (US) will resume the Iran war.
EUR/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 184.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is remaining slightly below the upper boundary of an emerging descending wedge pattern.
The EUR/USD pair trades vulnerably near the two-month low of 1.1596, posted on Tuesday, during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.7890 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair remains stronger as safe-haven demand supports the US Dollar (USD).
China announced it will purchase 200 Boeing jets, review rare earth export licences for civilian use and pursue reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods with the US as part of a broad trade package. Summary: The following is drawn from a China Commerce Ministry statement.China will purchase 200 Boeing jets, with the US committing to provide engines, parts and supply guarantees for components as part of the dealBeijing will review rare earth export licence applications for civilian use and both sides agreed to jointly study and resolve each other's concerns on rare earths, a significant softening of China's posture on a critical strategic commodityChina is restoring registration of eligible US beef exporters and will send a technical team to the US to address some beef import suspensions, reopening a market that had been closed to American producersThe US and China are targeting reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods each, with Washington's tariffs on Chinese goods capped at the level set under the Kuala Lumpur arrangementBoth sides agreed to seek an extension of the Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement and to establish boards of trade and investment to provide institutional guarantees for bilateral commerceChina and the United States announced a sweeping package of trade concessions late on Tuesday, with Beijing committing to purchase 200 Boeing jets, ease restrictions on rare earth exports for civilian use, and pursue reciprocal tariff cuts on at least $30 billion of goods on each side, in the most substantive deliverable yet from the framework agreed at the Kuala Lumpur summit.The China Commerce Ministry statement covered an unusually broad range of sectors simultaneously. The Boeing deal, under which the US will provide engines, parts and supply guarantees for components, represents a major re-entry for the American planemaker into one of the world's largest aviation markets, from which it has been largely excluded for several years amid bilateral tensions and regulatory disputes. The scale of the order, 200 aircraft, would rank among the largest single purchases in Boeing's commercial history and will provide a significant boost to the company's order book and production planning.The rare earth announcement is arguably the more geopolitically significant element of the package. China controls the vast majority of global rare earth mining and, more critically, processing capacity, giving it effective leverage over supply chains for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence electronics and semiconductor manufacturing across the Western world. The commitment to review export licence applications for civilian use, and to jointly study and resolve each other's concerns on the issue, stops short of a full lifting of restrictions but signals a meaningful willingness to use rare earth access as a diplomatic tool in a constructive rather than coercive direction.On agricultural trade, China is restoring registration of eligible US beef exporters and will send a technical team to the United States to address specific import suspensions, reopening a market that has been a persistent source of bilateral friction.The broader trade framework envisages reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods on each side, with US tariffs on Chinese products capped at the level established under the Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Both sides agreed to seek an extension of that arrangement and to establish formal boards of trade and investment to provide institutional continuity for the bilateral relationship beyond the current summit cycle.---The package of concessions is the most substantive deliverable to emerge from the Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement and will provide a significant boost to Boeing, which has been largely shut out of the Chinese market for several years. The commitment to review rare earth export licence applications for civilian use is the headline geopolitical signal: China controls the overwhelming majo
Samsung Electronics union to strike Thursday after South Korea mediation talks collapseCiti bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption riskOil slips a little on Trump peace talk but supply fears keep prices elevatedEU strikes provisional deal to cut US tariffs ahead of Trump's July 4 deadlinePBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8397 (vs. estimate at 6.8072)The People's Bank of China has left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR)s unchanged for the 12 monthPreview: Australia April jobs data eyed as AUD rally and RBA rate path hang in balanceChina to scrap SME loan targets in shift toward market-driven credit, report saysMore from Fed's Paulson, says risks are super-elevated and hike on table if growth surgesJapan manufacturers' mood edges up in May but outlook darkens, Tankan showsPaulson says current Fed policy appropriate but markets right to price in hikesECB's Nagel says bank may have to act in June as Iran energy shock spreadsBOJ may slow or pause bond taper at June meeting, analysts sayWar ICYMI - Trump briefed on Iran strike options after pausing attack, officials sayUS Senate advances war powers vote to curb Iran strikes without Congress (doesn't matter)ECB's Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shutOil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil draw much greater than expectedSummary:US crude inventories fell for a fifth straight week, with API data showing a 9.1 million barrel draw for the week ended May 15, alongside a 5.8 million barrel gasoline draw and a 1 million barrel distillate decline; an SPR drawdown of nearly 10 million barrels will dominate Wednesday's EIA reportTwo Chinese supertankers carrying 4 million barrels of Middle East crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, the first notable passage through the chokepoint in some timeECB Governing Council member Kocher said on Austrian prime-time television that a June rate hike is unavoidable if the Hormuz Strait remains closed, delivering a notably more unconditional signal than his hedged comments to specialist media a week earlierPhiladelphia Fed President Paulson said in prepared remarks that current policy is appropriate but called it healthy that markets are pricing in an extended hold or further hikes; in follow-up comments she described risks to both inflation and the outlook as super-elevated and put a rate hike explicitly on the tableChina held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, in line with market expectationsSamsung Electronics faces a Thursday strike by over 47,000 South Korean workers after mediation talks collapsed, with the union blaming delays in management decision-making; Samsung shares fell on the newsAsia-Pacific equities declined on a weak US handover, with the Nikkei off 1% and Hong Kong and mainland China each down around 0.5%, weighed by higher yields, the global bond rout and ongoing geopolitical uncertaintyWednesday's session was dominated by the familiar tug of war between diplomatic optimism and supply reality, with crude markets ultimately siding with the latter as the weight of inventory data and central bank hawkishness kept the broader tone cautious despite Trump's latest assertion that the Iran war will end very quickly.On the supply side, the numbers continued to tell their own story. API data showed US crude stocks fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15, a fifth consecutive weekly draw, with gasoline inventories down 5.8 million barrels and distillates off by around 1 million barrels. The gasoline figure in particular will be watched closely ahead of the EIA report due at 10.30am Eastern on Wednesday morning, with a draw of that size carrying the potential to rattle RBOB sellers who had been leaning the other way. The distillate number edges the market closer to the psychologically significant 100-million barrel mark, and
The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March at 06:00 GMT.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the second successive day and hovering around the six-week high of 99.43, reached on Tuesday, during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair declines to around 0.5820 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on rising tensions in the Middle East and a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate stance.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $75.00 neighborhood and retreats to the lower end of the daily range in the last hour.
GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from increased risk aversion stemming from the Middle East conflict.
European People’s Party lead trade negotiator Željana Zovko said that a deal between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) was reached, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Zovko added that deal on US tariffs provides certainty for European firms
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8397 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8375 and 6.8072 Reuters estimate.
The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to near 0.7095 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Geopolitical uncertainties and elevated crude oil prices weigh on the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD).
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, stalling the previous day's late pullback from the 1.3775 region or the highest since mid-April. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.3700s and continue to draw support from a bullish US Dollar (USD).
The EU has struck a provisional agreement to implement its Turnberry trade deal with the US, paving the way for duty cuts on American goods before Trump's July 4 deadline and averting the threat of higher US tariffs on European products. Summary:The European Parliament and the Council of the EU reached a provisional agreement on legislation to remove import duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential access to US farm and sea produce, implementing the trade framework agreed at Trump's Turnberry resort in Scotland last JulyUnder the Turnberry deal, the EU agreed to cut duties on US goods in exchange for the United States maintaining tariffs of 15% on most EU products, down from higher threatened levelsTrump had warned of much higher tariffs on EU goods including cars, threatening to raise car import tariffs from 15% to 25%, if the EU did not implement its commitments by July 4, a deadline the bloc is now expected to meet with a final European Parliament vote anticipated in mid-JuneEU lawmakers secured safeguards including the ability to suspend the deal if the US breaches its terms and a sunset clause ending EU tariff concessions on March 31, 2028, though EU governments had resisted stronger compliance mechanisms over concerns about antagonising WashingtonSteel and aluminium remain unresolved, with the European People's Party noting that further discussions on those sectors will be needed within the broader frameworkThe European Union reached a provisional agreement on Wednesday on the legislation needed to implement its landmark trade deal with the United States, clearing the most significant remaining obstacle to averting a fresh transatlantic tariff conflict ahead of President Trump's July 4 deadline.The agreement between the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, which represents member state governments, finalises a legislative text that will allow the bloc to begin removing import duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential market access to American agricultural and seafood products. The framework underpinning the deal was agreed at Trump's Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July, under which the EU accepted duty cuts in exchange for the United States applying a 15% tariff on most European goods rather than the higher rates Trump had threatened.Nearly ten months elapsed between that framework accord and Wednesday's provisional legislative agreement, a delay that prompted Trump to set an explicit July 4 deadline, warning that failure to implement the EU's commitments would result in significantly higher tariffs on European goods including cars, with rates on auto imports threatened to rise from the current 15% to 25%. The EU is now expected to meet that deadline comfortably, with a final European Parliament ratification vote pencilled in for mid-June.EU lawmakers had pushed hard for stronger compliance mechanisms throughout the negotiations, seeking a sunrise clause under which the EU would only reduce duties once the United States had demonstrably fulfilled its own obligations, the ability to suspend the agreement in the event of US non-compliance, and a sunset clause expiring EU tariff concessions at the end of March 2028. A more cautious position from EU governments, concerned that overly confrontational language would irritate the Trump administration and create uncertainty for European exporters, shaped the final outcome, though meaningful safeguards were retained.The deal was welcomed by lead negotiator Zeljana Zovko of the European People's Party, who said Europe had avoided a damaging escalation of transatlantic trade tensions while protecting European companies and jobs. Steel and aluminium remain outside the agreement's scope, with both sides acknowledging further talks will be needed on those sectors.--The provisional agreement removes the most immediate risk of a transatlantic trade escalation, with Trump's threat to raise tariffs on EU cars from 15% to 25% and impose broader levie
EUR/USD moves little after posting modest losses in the previous day, hovering around 1.1600 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair may experience further depreciation as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to increased risk aversion stemming from the Middle East conflict.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Wednesday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note around 159.05 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The potential upside for the pair might be limited amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Traders continue to digest the latest headlines on US talks with Iran to end the war.
Australia's April jobs data, due Thursday, is expected to show employment rising around 10k-15k with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though Easter distortions and Middle East risks cloud the outlook.Summary: The following draws on notes from Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and a Reuters market analysis:Both Westpac and CBA expect a softer April employment print after recent strong momentum, with Westpac forecasting a gain of 10,000 jobs and CBA forecasting 15,000, down from March's 17,900Both banks expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% and the participation rate steady at 66.8%, with CBA noting the unemployment rate would remain unchanged due to roundingWestpac flagged a seasonal distortion risk: the April survey window completely overlaps Easter, including Good Friday and Easter Monday, which could over-emphasise weakness in the headline figureThe March result was solid in aggregate but the underlying detail was stronger still, with full-time employment surging 52,500 and hours worked rising 0.5%, a mix the RBA will have notedThe RBA's most immediate concern remains inflation rather than labour market conditions, meaning a modest employment miss is unlikely to shift the policy calculus materially, though a significant deterioration would be harder to dismissA weak print, particularly a rise in unemployment toward 4.4% to 4.5% or a decline in full-time jobs and hours worked, could book-end an extended period of AUD strength and trigger a significant technical reversalAustralia's April labour force data, due Thursday, will be scrutinised for signs of whether the country's remarkably resilient jobs market is beginning to buckle under the weight of three consecutive RBA rate hikes and the mounting economic spillover from the Middle East conflict.Analysts at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia both expect a modestly softer headline number following a run of strong results. Westpac is pencilling in employment growth of 10,000, while CBA forecasts a gain of 15,000, both below March's 17,900. Neither bank expects a move in the unemployment rate, which is seen holding at 4.3%, or in the participation rate, forecast steady at 66.8%.The March result was solid on the surface but notably stronger beneath it, with full-time employment surging 52,500 and hours worked rising 0.5%, an underlying mix that has given the RBA little reason to soften its hawkish bias. The central bank still characterises labour conditions as somewhat tight, and with underlying inflation remaining above target and capacity pressures persisting into 2026, a genuinely weak jobs number would be needed to shift the policy calculus.Westpac has flagged a specific seasonal complication for this month's survey. The April reference period completely overlaps both Good Friday and Easter Monday, a timing abnormality that could artificially depress the headline employment figure and complicate interpretation. Analysts caution that a soft number driven by lower participation rather than genuine labour market deterioration may be dismissed by markets and the RBA alike.The stakes for AUD are considerable. A firm result would reinforce expectations for continued tightening and position the currency to challenge four-year highs around 0.7283. A weak print, in particular one showing rising unemployment, falling full-time employment or declining hours worked, would hit rate hike pricing hard and risk triggering a significant reversal of the AUD rally that has run since April 2025, with limited technical support visible ahead of the 0.6830 to 0.6835 zone.-----The April employment print carries outsized significance for both AUD/USD and RBA rate expectations. A strong result would reinforce the case for continued tightening after three consecutive quarter-point hikes and empower AUD to challenge four-year highs near 0.7283. A soft outcome, particularly if unemployment rises toward 4.4% to 4.5% or full-time employment falls, would materially dent rate hike expectation
US President Donald Trump threatened to resume attacks on Iran in “two or three days” as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said that she favored leaving interest rates unchanged and conditioned lower borrowing costs on making sustained progress on inflation, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure near $4,480 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal drops to its lowest since March 30 as persistent inflation fears keep interest rate hike expectations and Treasury yields high.
The Crude Oil market spent Tuesday teaching the headline writers a lesson.
Tuesday handed the Pound a labour market reading that was mixed enough to satisfy nobody.
The Aussie's Tuesday slide had little to do with anything domestic.
The NZD/USD pair falls toward the 0.5830 region on Wednesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following upbeat labor-market data and renewed tensions linked to Iran.
EUR/USD drops near 1.1600 on Tuesday as the Greenback recovers some ground, supported by soaring US Treasury yields, even though ECB officials opened the door to rate hikes at the June meeting. The pair trades with losses of 0.48% at the time of writing.
The Yen's slow drift back toward 160.00 has the feel of a market that has stopped waiting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens toward the 99.30 region after the latest ADP employment report showed US private employers added 42,250 jobs on average over the previous four weeks, marking the strongest reading since the weekly series began in October 2025.
Major US stock indices close lowerWSJ: Little progress in US/Iran talksVP Vance: Made a lot of progress on IranAl Hadath: Trump has made decision to attack IranJapan's Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forexTrump: We may have to give Iran another hit. I am not sureNATO warns alliance buildup will take yearsBessent: Trump Admin. is not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in NovUS Pending home sales 1.4% vs 1.0% estimate.More from Treas Sec Bessent: U.S. expects European partners to support Iran sanctionsUS Treasury Secretary Bessent. Excess FX volatility is undesirable.Canada CPI inflation YoY for April 2.8% vs 3.1% estimateCanada March building permits +10.3% vs +3.0% expectedADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last weekThe USD is higher to kickstart the trading day. Stocks pointing lower. Yields lower too.ECB's Villeroy: Iran conflict creates risk to growth and inflationThe increased risk of a broader escalation in the Middle East helped lift the dollar, with the move higher also supported by rising global bond yields. Although there were pockets of optimism just 24 hours ago after President Trump appeared to pull back from immediate military action, the threat of renewed bombing has quickly returned to the forefront. Markets remain concerned that even if a temporary pause is achieved, disruptions to oil flows and heightened geopolitical uncertainty could keep energy prices elevated for longer.Even though crude oil prices edged modestly lower today, traders continue to worry that sustained higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and potentially reignite inflation expectations, with secondary effects spilling over into other goods and services. That backdrop helped push yields higher across the US curve. The 2-year yield rose 2.6 basis points to 4.116%, the 10-year yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.665%, and the 30-year yield remained comfortably above the 5% level at 5.1774%, up around 3 basis points on the day.The combination of higher yields and a more cautious risk environment also supported the greenback against risk-sensitive currencies. The AUD was one of the weakest major currencies, with the USD rising 0.82% against it, while the NZD also came under pressure, with the USD up 0.70%.Looking at some of the major currency pairs:USDJPY remained firm despite intervention rhetoric: The yen initially strengthened after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned authorities were prepared to take decisive action on FX moves, but the gains quickly faded. USDJPY traded in a relatively contained range between 158.60 and 159.25. One theme becoming increasingly evident is that intervention chatter continues to attract dip buyers rather than sustained selling.Going into the new trading day, the rising 100-hour moving average near 158.56 remains close support. A break below that level would have traders targeting the 158.00 area, where the 200-hour moving average is moving higher. However, if buyers can keep the pair above the 100-hour MA and push back above 159.08, the focus would shift once again toward the key 160.00 level.AUDUSD fell sharply on the day and extended below a key swing area floor between 0.7100 and 0.7113. The pair dropped to a low near 0.7080 before rebounding back toward the upper end of that broken support zone. However, sellers stalled the recovery near 0.7113, keeping that area as a critical barometer for the new trading day. A move back above — and more importantly staying above — the 0.7113 level would tilt the bias back in favor of the buyers. Staying below 0.7100 keeps the sellers in control and would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March low near 0.7055, followed by the rising 100-day moving average near 0.7014.NZDUSD sellers pushed the pair lower from a high near 0.5880 to a session low of 0.5818. That move briefly broke below yesterday’s low near 0.5822, but sellers could not sustain momentum below the April 29 low at 0.5813. A break
USD/CHF forms a ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern and rises by over 0.58% on Tuesday, clearing key resistance levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7868. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7890, shy of 0.7900.
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights growing stress across emerging Asian assets as higher U.S. yields, a stronger Dollar and Oil shock weigh on Indonesia, the Philippines and India. IDR has hit record lows amid downgrades and index removals, while EM bonds face rising inflation and funding costs.
USD/JPY rally extends for the seventh straight day, up 0.10% to a 12-day high of 159.25, despite growing fears of Japanese authorities intervening in FX markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades near 159.00.
HSBC reviews China’s April 2026 data, noting soft Retail Sales and a sharp fall in Fixed Asset Investment alongside resilient services and solid Industrial Production. CPI remains stable while PPI accelerates on Oil and AI-related demand.
Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure on Tuesday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields continue to weigh on the precious metal amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates to tackle rising Oil-driven inflation pressures.
The WSJ is reporting:Iran’s negotiating position remains largely unchanged, with mediators and U.S. officials saying there has been little progress toward a breakthrough deal. Trump said he halted planned U.S. strikes on Tuesday due to what he described as positive developments in negotiations. Iran continues demanding: An end to hostilities Financial relief and reparations Oversight role in the Strait of Hormuz While resisting U.S. demands to shut down or suspend its nuclear program The U.S. and Israel were preparing additional strikes, with some regional sources warning attacks could still happen as early as next week. Trump suggested more military action remains possible, saying the U.S. may need to give Iran “another big hit.” More than 20,000 targets have reportedly been struck in Iran, but Tehran has not changed its negotiating stance. Vice President JD Vance said Iran appears interested in a deal, but cautioned there is no certainty until an agreement is signed. Iran has retaliated by disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic and launching thousands of drones and missiles at Gulf states. A drone strike hit a generator at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear facility, though no radiation leak occurred. The UAE said the drones originated from Iraq and reported intercepting six additional drones in the last 48 hours. The conflict continues to pose major risks to global energy markets, regional security, and oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, the WSJ is also reporting that the U.S. seized the Iran-linked oil tanker Skywave in the Indian Ocean after the vessel had been sanctioned in March for transporting Iranian crude. Officials said the tanker likely loaded more than one million barrels of oil earlier this year. The move comes as tensions with Iran remain elevated, with President Trump warning that additional military strikes against Tehran remain possibleWe are "on" again for war hostilities. Buckle up. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Gold (XAU/USD) price falls over 1.3% on Tuesday as the Greenback posts solid gains underpinned by US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note yield near a 16-month peak. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,506 after reaching a high of $4,589.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that they need to closely monitor signs of upward price pressure and that he will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve the BoJ inflation target, after a G7 finance chiefs and central bankers' meeting in Paris on Tuesday.
We've made a lot of progress on IranWe can restart military campaignThat is not what Trump or Iran wants to do.Iran wants to make a deal but won't know until they sign a dealEarlier, seeming to lean more toward a another "hit" These are less alarming.The Dow is down -0.21%, the S&P down -0.22% and the Nasdaq is down -0.40% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The EUR/USD pair weakens toward the 1.1600 region on Tuesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following solid labor-market data and rising Treasury yields, while mixed developments in the Eurozone limit support for the shared currency.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its rally on Tuesday, climbing near more than one-month highs as stalled US-Iran negotiations and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations support the US Dollar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $103.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday, up 1.16% on the day and extending its advance for a fourth consecutive day.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Japan Finance Minister Mira Katayama says: Ready to take decisive action on forexBOJ Ueda says:Latest GDP data are mostly in line with our forecast, Middle East situation has begun to impact.Need to closely monitor signs on upward price pressure.Aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly. When asked about BOJ tapering plans, will assess market situation, functionality.Will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve inflation target.The USDJPY has dipped on the latest news, but the pair remains above the day’s low near 158.64. That keeps sellers from taking full control for now, but the downside levels are clearly defined.The first key target comes at yesterday’s low near 158.60, followed by the rising 100-hour moving average at 158.529. A break below that area would increase the short-term bearish bias and give sellers more confidence.That said, there would still be more work to do. The next downside hurdles would be the 158.00 level, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average at 157.835. A move below those levels would be needed to tilt the broader short-term bias more firmly in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The Dow gave up a chunk of last week's record run on Tuesday, sliding back from the 50K handle it had briefly tagged days earlier, with the broader equity tape leaning lower as bonds did the heavy lifting on the downside.
The British Pound (GBP) retreats by 0.31% during the North American session as the US Dollar (USD) rises, underpinned by soaring US Treasury yields as investors price in a spike in inflation from the energy shock. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3392 after reaching a daily high of 1.3437.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation accelerated in April, mainly due to higher energy prices and fading base effects, while underlying pressures stayed contained.
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