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As the broader market focus stays on the fallout from the Middle East crisis, it is easy to expect inflation to keep running up on the back of higher energy prices. But as we look to the UK CPI report later, the expectation is for price pressures to ease in April. That at least on an annual basis. So, what's the deal here?Let's take a quick look as to why that is and what can we expect.The headline numbers are still very much expected to be impacted by higher energy prices from the US-Iran conflict. That should lead to monthly inflation jumping by around 0.9%. However, the annual estimate is expected to ease to 3.0% (from 3.3% previously) due to a couple of adjustments and base effects.In particular, services inflation is the one that will be the most impacted.Firstly, there was the data error by the Department of Transport in overstating the inflation numbers for April 2025. As noted by the ONS: "The incorrect data overstate the number of vehicles subject to Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) rates applicable in the first year of registration."The error led to a raised CPI estimate of around 0.12%, which was not corrected for after. However, the impact on services inflation is roughly double that when you account for the more detailed breakdown.Secondly, there was the big jump in water and sewage prices in April 2025 due to an industry-wide infrastructure upgrade. The hike was frontloaded as part of a 5-year investment plan and averaged around £123 or roughly 26%. So far this year, the same category is only suggesting a 5% price increase. So taking that into account, it could lead to another 0.2% drop in headline annual inflation.Thirdly, MNI points out that there will also be an offsetting drop in electricity and gas prices amid "policy costs" being removed from bills during the autumn budget."This is the case for both the 60% of consumers on price cap tariffs and the majority of the 40% of consumers on fixed price tariffs (although there were some policy costs that didn’t need to be paid by smaller suppliers so the reduction for these will be less). The BOE is forecasting a -0.34% change in contribution from this alone."And lastly, there will also be other base effects to account for amid stronger airfares and social rents in April 2025. So, those will also reflect a decline when weighed up against April this year.In terms of core prices, the annual estimate is expected at 2.6% - marking a drop from 3.1% in March. That will largely be tied to easing in services inflation on the caveats pointed out above. As such, it is not much reason to think of it being a material change to the UK inflation trend. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China announced it will purchase 200 Boeing jets, review rare earth export licences for civilian use and pursue reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods with the US as part of a broad trade package. Summary: The following is drawn from a China Commerce Ministry statement.China will purchase 200 Boeing jets, with the US committing to provide engines, parts and supply guarantees for components as part of the dealBeijing will review rare earth export licence applications for civilian use and both sides agreed to jointly study and resolve each other's concerns on rare earths, a significant softening of China's posture on a critical strategic commodityChina is restoring registration of eligible US beef exporters and will send a technical team to the US to address some beef import suspensions, reopening a market that had been closed to American producersThe US and China are targeting reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods each, with Washington's tariffs on Chinese goods capped at the level set under the Kuala Lumpur arrangementBoth sides agreed to seek an extension of the Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement and to establish boards of trade and investment to provide institutional guarantees for bilateral commerceChina and the United States announced a sweeping package of trade concessions late on Tuesday, with Beijing committing to purchase 200 Boeing jets, ease restrictions on rare earth exports for civilian use, and pursue reciprocal tariff cuts on at least $30 billion of goods on each side, in the most substantive deliverable yet from the framework agreed at the Kuala Lumpur summit.The China Commerce Ministry statement covered an unusually broad range of sectors simultaneously. The Boeing deal, under which the US will provide engines, parts and supply guarantees for components, represents a major re-entry for the American planemaker into one of the world's largest aviation markets, from which it has been largely excluded for several years amid bilateral tensions and regulatory disputes. The scale of the order, 200 aircraft, would rank among the largest single purchases in Boeing's commercial history and will provide a significant boost to the company's order book and production planning.The rare earth announcement is arguably the more geopolitically significant element of the package. China controls the vast majority of global rare earth mining and, more critically, processing capacity, giving it effective leverage over supply chains for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence electronics and semiconductor manufacturing across the Western world. The commitment to review export licence applications for civilian use, and to jointly study and resolve each other's concerns on the issue, stops short of a full lifting of restrictions but signals a meaningful willingness to use rare earth access as a diplomatic tool in a constructive rather than coercive direction.On agricultural trade, China is restoring registration of eligible US beef exporters and will send a technical team to the United States to address specific import suspensions, reopening a market that has been a persistent source of bilateral friction.The broader trade framework envisages reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods on each side, with US tariffs on Chinese products capped at the level established under the Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Both sides agreed to seek an extension of that arrangement and to establish formal boards of trade and investment to provide institutional continuity for the bilateral relationship beyond the current summit cycle.---The package of concessions is the most substantive deliverable to emerge from the Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement and will provide a significant boost to Boeing, which has been largely shut out of the Chinese market for several years. The commitment to review rare earth export licence applications for civilian use is the headline geopolitical signal: China controls the overwhelming majo

Samsung Electronics union to strike Thursday after South Korea mediation talks collapseCiti bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption riskOil slips a little on Trump peace talk but supply fears keep prices elevatedEU strikes provisional deal to cut US tariffs ahead of Trump's July 4 deadlinePBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8397 (vs. estimate at 6.8072)The People's Bank of China has left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR)s unchanged for the 12 monthPreview: Australia April jobs data eyed as AUD rally and RBA rate path hang in balanceChina to scrap SME loan targets in shift toward market-driven credit, report saysMore from Fed's Paulson, says risks are super-elevated and hike on table if growth surgesJapan manufacturers' mood edges up in May but outlook darkens, Tankan showsPaulson says current Fed policy appropriate but markets right to price in hikesECB's Nagel says bank may have to act in June as Iran energy shock spreadsBOJ may slow or pause bond taper at June meeting, analysts sayWar ICYMI - Trump briefed on Iran strike options after pausing attack, officials sayUS Senate advances war powers vote to curb Iran strikes without Congress (doesn't matter)ECB's Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shutOil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil draw much greater than expectedSummary:US crude inventories fell for a fifth straight week, with API data showing a 9.1 million barrel draw for the week ended May 15, alongside a 5.8 million barrel gasoline draw and a 1 million barrel distillate decline; an SPR drawdown of nearly 10 million barrels will dominate Wednesday's EIA reportTwo Chinese supertankers carrying 4 million barrels of Middle East crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, the first notable passage through the chokepoint in some timeECB Governing Council member Kocher said on Austrian prime-time television that a June rate hike is unavoidable if the Hormuz Strait remains closed, delivering a notably more unconditional signal than his hedged comments to specialist media a week earlierPhiladelphia Fed President Paulson said in prepared remarks that current policy is appropriate but called it healthy that markets are pricing in an extended hold or further hikes; in follow-up comments she described risks to both inflation and the outlook as super-elevated and put a rate hike explicitly on the tableChina held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, in line with market expectationsSamsung Electronics faces a Thursday strike by over 47,000 South Korean workers after mediation talks collapsed, with the union blaming delays in management decision-making; Samsung shares fell on the newsAsia-Pacific equities declined on a weak US handover, with the Nikkei off 1% and Hong Kong and mainland China each down around 0.5%, weighed by higher yields, the global bond rout and ongoing geopolitical uncertaintyWednesday's session was dominated by the familiar tug of war between diplomatic optimism and supply reality, with crude markets ultimately siding with the latter as the weight of inventory data and central bank hawkishness kept the broader tone cautious despite Trump's latest assertion that the Iran war will end very quickly.On the supply side, the numbers continued to tell their own story. API data showed US crude stocks fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15, a fifth consecutive weekly draw, with gasoline inventories down 5.8 million barrels and distillates off by around 1 million barrels. The gasoline figure in particular will be watched closely ahead of the EIA report due at 10.30am Eastern on Wednesday morning, with a draw of that size carrying the potential to rattle RBOB sellers who had been leaning the other way. The distillate number edges the market closer to the psychologically significant 100-million barrel mark, and

The EU has struck a provisional agreement to implement its Turnberry trade deal with the US, paving the way for duty cuts on American goods before Trump's July 4 deadline and averting the threat of higher US tariffs on European products. Summary:The European Parliament and the Council of the EU reached a provisional agreement on legislation to remove import duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential access to US farm and sea produce, implementing the trade framework agreed at Trump's Turnberry resort in Scotland last JulyUnder the Turnberry deal, the EU agreed to cut duties on US goods in exchange for the United States maintaining tariffs of 15% on most EU products, down from higher threatened levelsTrump had warned of much higher tariffs on EU goods including cars, threatening to raise car import tariffs from 15% to 25%, if the EU did not implement its commitments by July 4, a deadline the bloc is now expected to meet with a final European Parliament vote anticipated in mid-JuneEU lawmakers secured safeguards including the ability to suspend the deal if the US breaches its terms and a sunset clause ending EU tariff concessions on March 31, 2028, though EU governments had resisted stronger compliance mechanisms over concerns about antagonising WashingtonSteel and aluminium remain unresolved, with the European People's Party noting that further discussions on those sectors will be needed within the broader frameworkThe European Union reached a provisional agreement on Wednesday on the legislation needed to implement its landmark trade deal with the United States, clearing the most significant remaining obstacle to averting a fresh transatlantic tariff conflict ahead of President Trump's July 4 deadline.The agreement between the European Parliament and the Council of the EU, which represents member state governments, finalises a legislative text that will allow the bloc to begin removing import duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential market access to American agricultural and seafood products. The framework underpinning the deal was agreed at Trump's Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July, under which the EU accepted duty cuts in exchange for the United States applying a 15% tariff on most European goods rather than the higher rates Trump had threatened.Nearly ten months elapsed between that framework accord and Wednesday's provisional legislative agreement, a delay that prompted Trump to set an explicit July 4 deadline, warning that failure to implement the EU's commitments would result in significantly higher tariffs on European goods including cars, with rates on auto imports threatened to rise from the current 15% to 25%. The EU is now expected to meet that deadline comfortably, with a final European Parliament ratification vote pencilled in for mid-June.EU lawmakers had pushed hard for stronger compliance mechanisms throughout the negotiations, seeking a sunrise clause under which the EU would only reduce duties once the United States had demonstrably fulfilled its own obligations, the ability to suspend the agreement in the event of US non-compliance, and a sunset clause expiring EU tariff concessions at the end of March 2028. A more cautious position from EU governments, concerned that overly confrontational language would irritate the Trump administration and create uncertainty for European exporters, shaped the final outcome, though meaningful safeguards were retained.The deal was welcomed by lead negotiator Zeljana Zovko of the European People's Party, who said Europe had avoided a damaging escalation of transatlantic trade tensions while protecting European companies and jobs. Steel and aluminium remain outside the agreement's scope, with both sides acknowledging further talks will be needed on those sectors.--The provisional agreement removes the most immediate risk of a transatlantic trade escalation, with Trump's threat to raise tariffs on EU cars from 15% to 25% and impose broader levie

Australia's April jobs data, due Thursday, is expected to show employment rising around 10k-15k with unemployment steady at 4.3%, though Easter distortions and Middle East risks cloud the outlook.Summary: The following draws on notes from Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and a Reuters market analysis:Both Westpac and CBA expect a softer April employment print after recent strong momentum, with Westpac forecasting a gain of 10,000 jobs and CBA forecasting 15,000, down from March's 17,900Both banks expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% and the participation rate steady at 66.8%, with CBA noting the unemployment rate would remain unchanged due to roundingWestpac flagged a seasonal distortion risk: the April survey window completely overlaps Easter, including Good Friday and Easter Monday, which could over-emphasise weakness in the headline figureThe March result was solid in aggregate but the underlying detail was stronger still, with full-time employment surging 52,500 and hours worked rising 0.5%, a mix the RBA will have notedThe RBA's most immediate concern remains inflation rather than labour market conditions, meaning a modest employment miss is unlikely to shift the policy calculus materially, though a significant deterioration would be harder to dismissA weak print, particularly a rise in unemployment toward 4.4% to 4.5% or a decline in full-time jobs and hours worked, could book-end an extended period of AUD strength and trigger a significant technical reversalAustralia's April labour force data, due Thursday, will be scrutinised for signs of whether the country's remarkably resilient jobs market is beginning to buckle under the weight of three consecutive RBA rate hikes and the mounting economic spillover from the Middle East conflict.Analysts at Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia both expect a modestly softer headline number following a run of strong results. Westpac is pencilling in employment growth of 10,000, while CBA forecasts a gain of 15,000, both below March's 17,900. Neither bank expects a move in the unemployment rate, which is seen holding at 4.3%, or in the participation rate, forecast steady at 66.8%.The March result was solid on the surface but notably stronger beneath it, with full-time employment surging 52,500 and hours worked rising 0.5%, an underlying mix that has given the RBA little reason to soften its hawkish bias. The central bank still characterises labour conditions as somewhat tight, and with underlying inflation remaining above target and capacity pressures persisting into 2026, a genuinely weak jobs number would be needed to shift the policy calculus.Westpac has flagged a specific seasonal complication for this month's survey. The April reference period completely overlaps both Good Friday and Easter Monday, a timing abnormality that could artificially depress the headline employment figure and complicate interpretation. Analysts caution that a soft number driven by lower participation rather than genuine labour market deterioration may be dismissed by markets and the RBA alike.The stakes for AUD are considerable. A firm result would reinforce expectations for continued tightening and position the currency to challenge four-year highs around 0.7283. A weak print, in particular one showing rising unemployment, falling full-time employment or declining hours worked, would hit rate hike pricing hard and risk triggering a significant reversal of the AUD rally that has run since April 2025, with limited technical support visible ahead of the 0.6830 to 0.6835 zone.-----The April employment print carries outsized significance for both AUD/USD and RBA rate expectations. A strong result would reinforce the case for continued tightening after three consecutive quarter-point hikes and empower AUD to challenge four-year highs near 0.7283. A soft outcome, particularly if unemployment rises toward 4.4% to 4.5% or full-time employment falls, would materially dent rate hike expectation

Major US stock indices close lowerWSJ: Little progress in US/Iran talksVP Vance: Made a lot of progress on IranAl Hadath: Trump has made decision to attack IranJapan's Finance Katayam: Ready to take decisive action on forexTrump: We may have to give Iran another hit. I am not sureNATO warns alliance buildup will take yearsBessent: Trump Admin. is not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in NovUS Pending home sales 1.4% vs 1.0% estimate.More from Treas Sec Bessent: U.S. expects European partners to support Iran sanctionsUS Treasury Secretary Bessent. Excess FX volatility is undesirable.Canada CPI inflation YoY for April 2.8% vs 3.1% estimateCanada March building permits +10.3% vs +3.0% expectedADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last weekThe USD is higher to kickstart the trading day. Stocks pointing lower. Yields lower too.ECB's Villeroy: Iran conflict creates risk to growth and inflationThe increased risk of a broader escalation in the Middle East helped lift the dollar, with the move higher also supported by rising global bond yields. Although there were pockets of optimism just 24 hours ago after President Trump appeared to pull back from immediate military action, the threat of renewed bombing has quickly returned to the forefront. Markets remain concerned that even if a temporary pause is achieved, disruptions to oil flows and heightened geopolitical uncertainty could keep energy prices elevated for longer.Even though crude oil prices edged modestly lower today, traders continue to worry that sustained higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and potentially reignite inflation expectations, with secondary effects spilling over into other goods and services. That backdrop helped push yields higher across the US curve. The 2-year yield rose 2.6 basis points to 4.116%, the 10-year yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.665%, and the 30-year yield remained comfortably above the 5% level at 5.1774%, up around 3 basis points on the day.The combination of higher yields and a more cautious risk environment also supported the greenback against risk-sensitive currencies. The AUD was one of the weakest major currencies, with the USD rising 0.82% against it, while the NZD also came under pressure, with the USD up 0.70%.Looking at some of the major currency pairs:USDJPY remained firm despite intervention rhetoric: The yen initially strengthened after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned authorities were prepared to take decisive action on FX moves, but the gains quickly faded. USDJPY traded in a relatively contained range between 158.60 and 159.25. One theme becoming increasingly evident is that intervention chatter continues to attract dip buyers rather than sustained selling.Going into the new trading day, the rising 100-hour moving average near 158.56 remains close support. A break below that level would have traders targeting the 158.00 area, where the 200-hour moving average is moving higher. However, if buyers can keep the pair above the 100-hour MA and push back above 159.08, the focus would shift once again toward the key 160.00 level.AUDUSD fell sharply on the day and extended below a key swing area floor between 0.7100 and 0.7113. The pair dropped to a low near 0.7080 before rebounding back toward the upper end of that broken support zone. However, sellers stalled the recovery near 0.7113, keeping that area as a critical barometer for the new trading day. A move back above — and more importantly staying above — the 0.7113 level would tilt the bias back in favor of the buyers. Staying below 0.7100 keeps the sellers in control and would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the rally from the March low near 0.7055, followed by the rising 100-day moving average near 0.7014.NZDUSD sellers pushed the pair lower from a high near 0.5880 to a session low of 0.5818. That move briefly broke below yesterday’s low near 0.5822, but sellers could not sustain momentum below the April 29 low at 0.5813. A break

The WSJ is reporting:Iran’s negotiating position remains largely unchanged, with mediators and U.S. officials saying there has been little progress toward a breakthrough deal. Trump said he halted planned U.S. strikes on Tuesday due to what he described as positive developments in negotiations. Iran continues demanding: An end to hostilities Financial relief and reparations Oversight role in the Strait of Hormuz While resisting U.S. demands to shut down or suspend its nuclear program The U.S. and Israel were preparing additional strikes, with some regional sources warning attacks could still happen as early as next week. Trump suggested more military action remains possible, saying the U.S. may need to give Iran “another big hit.” More than 20,000 targets have reportedly been struck in Iran, but Tehran has not changed its negotiating stance. Vice President JD Vance said Iran appears interested in a deal, but cautioned there is no certainty until an agreement is signed. Iran has retaliated by disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic and launching thousands of drones and missiles at Gulf states. A drone strike hit a generator at the UAE’s Barakah nuclear facility, though no radiation leak occurred. The UAE said the drones originated from Iraq and reported intercepting six additional drones in the last 48 hours. The conflict continues to pose major risks to global energy markets, regional security, and oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, the WSJ is also reporting that the U.S. seized the Iran-linked oil tanker Skywave in the Indian Ocean after the vessel had been sanctioned in March for transporting Iranian crude. Officials said the tanker likely loaded more than one million barrels of oil earlier this year. The move comes as tensions with Iran remain elevated, with President Trump warning that additional military strikes against Tehran remain possibleWe are "on" again for war hostilities. Buckle up. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

We've made a lot of progress on IranWe can restart military campaignThat is not what Trump or Iran wants to do.Iran wants to make a deal but won't know until they sign a dealEarlier, seeming to lean more toward a another "hit" These are less alarming.The Dow is down -0.21%, the S&P down -0.22% and the Nasdaq is down -0.40% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan Finance Minister Mira Katayama says: Ready to take decisive action on forexBOJ Ueda says:Latest GDP data are mostly in line with our forecast, Middle East situation has begun to impact.Need to closely monitor signs on upward price pressure.Aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly. When asked about BOJ tapering plans, will assess market situation, functionality.Will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve inflation target.The USDJPY has dipped on the latest news, but the pair remains above the day’s low near 158.64. That keeps sellers from taking full control for now, but the downside levels are clearly defined.The first key target comes at yesterday’s low near 158.60, followed by the rising 100-hour moving average at 158.529. A break below that area would increase the short-term bearish bias and give sellers more confidence.That said, there would still be more work to do. The next downside hurdles would be the 158.00 level, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average at 157.835. A move below those levels would be needed to tilt the broader short-term bias more firmly in favor of the sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking on many topics: We may have to give Iran another hit, not sureWas hours from attacking IranIran is begging to make a deal.Don't know about changing the regime in Cuba. Cuba really needs helpEveryone tells me that the Iran war is unpopular, but I think it's very popularGulf states and Isreal are negotiatingMust ensure Iran does not have nuclear weaponsXi promised he is not sending weapons to IranThere may be other initiatives to keep gas prices in checkIran does not have capacity to retaliateThe President and war staff were presumably a day away from bombing Iran again yesterday, but Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar asked for a delay on hopes for continued peace talks.Meanwhile the UAE defense minister today said that they dealt with six drones in the past 48 hours with the drones launched from Iraq. There were other reports that Israel sent drones toward the UAE (not sure about the sources of some of these stories) as a way to push the UAE into playing a greater negative role in the region against Iran and other Islamic countries.The world turns. US stocks are lower with the Dow industrial average down -0.35%. The S&P index down -0.70%, and the NASDAQ index down -1.23% US yields are moving to the upside with increased momentum. The two-year is now at 4.133% up 4.3 basis points. The 10 year is up 4.8 basis points at 4.671% the move higher in the 10 year takes the yield to the highest level going back to January 15, 2025. The high yield in 2025 reached 4.809%. The 10 year yield is now up 34 basis points over the last nine trading days from a low of 4.334%. Kevin Warsh will take over as Fed Chair on Friday when he is sworn in. Pres. Trump says that he is going to let Warsh do what he wants to do at the Fed with interest rates. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

NATO warns alliance buildup will take years. The top NATA commander is speaking and says: As the European pillar of NATO gets stronger, this allows the U.S. to reduce its presence in Europe and limit itself to providing those critical capabilities allies cannot yet provide So we should expect a redeployment of U.S. forces over time as allies build their capacities As for the exact timeline, it is going to vary broadly across a number of different capabilities as nations meet their spending commitments and meet their capability targets I cannot give you an exact timeline, it's going to be an ongoing process for several years The overall tone from NATO officials points toward a long-term structural transition within the alliance rather than any immediate military shift. The comments reinforce the idea that European NATO members are expected to shoulder a larger share of defense responsibilities over time as military spending commitments rise and domestic capabilities improve. That gradual transition could eventually allow the U.S. to redeploy some forces and reduce parts of its direct military footprint in Europe, while still maintaining key strategic and high-end support roles.From a broader market and geopolitical perspective, the comments carry a mildly hawkish defense-spending bias for Europe over the medium to longer term. The emphasis on “several years” and “ongoing process” suggests policymakers are trying to avoid signaling abrupt changes that could unsettle allies or markets. Instead, the messaging points to a phased rebalancing of NATO responsibilities tied closely to future spending targets, weapons production, logistics, and military readiness improvements across member nations. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump administration not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in November U.S.-China truce on critical minerals and tariff rates can be extended through subsequent meetings this year New Section 301 tariffs would not be a problem for China as long as they do not exceed prior agreed levels from November U.S.-China board of investment protocol will seek to identify deals that would not need CFIUS national security reviews or investment restrictions China understands Section 301 trade investigations may bring U.S. tariffs back to levels prior to Supreme Court decision to annul some duties Trump will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng prior to Xi’s September White House visit to work out more details on trade arrangements U.S.-China consultations on AI guardrails to prevent proliferation of powerful models likely to start in the next four to eight weeks U.S. and China will initially identify $30 billion of non-critical goods that can have reduced or no tariffs under board of trade protocolThe comments suggest the U.S. and China are trying to build a more stable and structured trade relationship ahead of the November truce deadline. Markets are likely to view the headlines as modestly risk-positive because both sides appear focused on avoiding a sharp escalation in tariffs while selectively reducing duties on some non-critical goods.The remarks also show trade talks are expanding beyond tariffs into investment rules, critical minerals, and AI cooperation. The administration still appears willing to keep pressure on China in strategic areas, but the overall tone points toward managed competition rather than a full economic decoupling.As background information on Section 301:Section 301 refers to a part of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 that gives the president authority to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions on countries deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices. It has been the main legal tool used by both the Trump and Biden administrations to place tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports.Under Section 301, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) investigates whether another country is: unfairly subsidizing industries stealing intellectual property forcing technology transfers discriminating against U.S. companies using trade practices that harm U.S. businesses If the investigation finds violations, the president can respond with tariffs, import restrictions, or other penalties.Trump used Section 301 during his first term to impose tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods, including electronics, machinery, industrial products, and consumer items. Those tariffs generated significant customs revenue for the U.S. government because importers pay the duties when goods enter the country. The cost is often passed along through supply chains to businesses and consumers.The recent comments suggest Trump could use new Section 301 investigations as a legal pathway to reimpose or increase tariffs if negotiations with China deteriorate or if courts limit other tariff authorities. In practice, it would allow the administration to: launch investigations into Chinese trade practices formally justify new tariffs under U.S. law collect duties at ports of entry through U.S. Customs pressure China while maintaining leverage in negotiations Markets pay close attention to Section 301 because it is one of the strongest and most flexible trade enforcement tools available to a U.S. president. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 1.7% revised from 1.5%Pending home sales (April): +1.4% MoM vs 1.0% estimate. Pending home sales (April): +3.2% YoYRegional breakdown: Northeast: +6.6% MoM, -0.6% YoY Midwest: +3.0% MoM, +2.7% YoY South: -0.7% MoM, +4.7% YoY West: +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoYTop metro area gains in pending home sales YoY: Boston-Cambridge-Newton: +10.3% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach: +9.4% Oklahoma City: +8.6% Milwaukee-Waukesha: +7.4% Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk: +7.2% Raleigh-Cary: +5.7% Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: +5.5% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria: +5.4% Columbus: +5.4% Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia: +5.1%Pending home sales moved modestly higher in April as buyers cautiously stepped back into the housing market despite elevated mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty. The gain suggests underlying housing demand remains resilient, particularly as buyers continue to adjust to higher financing costs.The regional data showed broad-based monthly gains outside of the South, while year-over-year activity improved in most areas of the country. The Northeast lagged on an annual basis, but still posted the strongest monthly increase in April.NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said buyers are showing “cautious optimism,” adding that demand would likely strengthen further if mortgage rates move back toward the lower levels seen earlier this year.Yun also highlighted ongoing supply concerns. Historically low foreclosure activity has limited distressed sales and reduced opportunities for discounted purchases, helping keep home prices elevated across most markets. Without a meaningful increase in housing supply, rising home prices could continue to outpace wage growth and weigh on housing affordability and homeownership rates.What is it?*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

More from Treas Sec. Bessent:U.S. expects European partners to support Iran sanctions by blocking Iran’s financiers, shutting its bank branches, and unmasking its shell companies Countries in the Middle East and Asia also need to root out Iran’s shadow banking networks U.S. Treasury is reviewing sanctions list to make it easier for financial institutions to focus on the most sophisticated terrorist financing and sanctions evasion schemes Some U.S. sanctions designations are obsolete and outdated, and may cause unintended consequences This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said that G7 finance meeting talks were constructive, He is confident the Bank of Japan Gov. Ueda will successfully guide monetary policy. He added that "excess" volatility in the Forex market is undesirable. He feels that the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are strongThe initial reaction has seen the USDJPY move lower after the pair pushed above the 159.00 midpoint of the broader 158.00–160.00 trading range that confined price action from early March through the end of April. That break higher kept buyers in control short term, but the move is now being tested.On the downside, the first key target comes in near 158.60 — the low from the North American session yesterday at 158.599. Just below that, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 158.478. Those two levels are now important barometers for the pair. A move below them would give sellers more confidence and shift control more toward the downside.The broader trend over the past few weeks has still favored buyers. After the sharp break lower on April 30 tied to fears of FX intervention, the pair found support near 155.50 before extending to a new low around 155.00 on May 6. Since that low, USDJPY has been climbing steadily higher, with only modest corrective pullbacks along the way.Momentum strengthened again last Thursday when the pair moved back above 158.00. Buyers then pushed the price through 159.00 during trading yesterday and again today, extending the upside recovery.For traders now, the key levels are clear:Support: 158.60 followed by the rising 100-hour moving average at 158.48 Resistance/Key upside barometer: 159.00 Stay above 159.00 and buyers remain in firm control. Move back below 158.60 and especially the 100-hour moving average, and sellers may start to regain momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior 2.4%CPI MoM 0.4% vs 0.7% expectedPrior CPI MoM 0.9%Core Measures:BOC core YoY 2.1% vs 2.5% last monthBOC core MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% last monthCore CPI % MOM 0.1% vs 0.0% last monthCPI Median 2.1% vs 2.2% estimate. Last month 2.3%CPI Trim 2.0% vs 2.1% estimate. Last month 2.2%CPI Common 2.5% versus 2.6% last monthDetails from Statistics CanadaEnergy prices surged 19.2% YoY in April, accelerating sharply from +3.9% in March. Gasoline prices jumped 28.6% YoY after rising 5.9% in March. Base effects from the April 2025 carbon levy removal boosted annual comparisons. Middle East conflict-driven supply uncertainty pushed prices higher. Seasonal switch to the more expensive summer gasoline blend added pressure. A temporary federal fuel excise tax suspension starting April 20 helped limit gains. Fuel oil and other fuel prices climbed 41.3% YoY due to higher global oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Natural gas prices fell 2.4% YoY, but the decline was much smaller than March’s -18.1%, adding upward pressure to the energy index. Comparisons were also affected by the prior removal of the consumer carbon levy. Base-year effects played a major role in April inflation readings, as sharp price declines from April 2025 dropped out of the annual calculation, mechanically lifting YoY inflation. Clothing and footwear prices rose 2.0% YoY, rebounding from a -0.4% decline in March. Women’s clothing prices increased 1.4%. Men’s clothing prices still fell, but at a slower pace (-1.2% vs -2.9% prior). Travel tour prices fell 11.0% YoY, reversing from an 11.5% increase in March. Monthly prices dropped 17.3% in April after rising 5.8% in March. Seasonal post-spring-break demand normalization contributed to the decline. Inflation accelerated in 9 provinces in April compared with March. Quebec CPI rose 3.0% YoY versus 2.9% in March. Quebec was less affected by carbon levy changes because it already operates under a cap-and-trade system.A better than expected report on inflation given the surge in energy. The USDCAD has moved higher (lower CAD) after the report and has stretched to a new high for the day at 1.3773. The pair is back above the 50% of the move down from the end of March high. That level comes in at 1.37576. The price is also moving away from the 100 hour MA at 1.3733.Overview of the Canada CPI Report.Canada’s CPI report includes several different inflation measures because the Bank of Canada wants to separate short-term noise from underlying inflation trends. Here’s a breakdown of the major measures and why traders watch them.Headline CPIThis is the standard inflation number most people see.It measures the overall change in consumer prices from a year ago and month ago across categories like: Food Shelter Gasoline Transportation Clothing Services The problem with headline CPI is that it can swing sharply because of volatile items like gasoline, airfare, or fresh food.That is why the Bank of Canada focuses heavily on “core” measures.The major Canadian core inflation measuresCPI-CommonThis tries to measure the broad underlying inflation trend across the economy.Think of it as:“What inflation rate is common across most categories?”It filters out category-specific noise and looks for the shared inflation trend.Why it matters It is very policy-oriented It tends to move slowly The BOC likes it for identifying persistent inflation pressure ExampleIf gasoline plunges but rents and services stay firm: Headline CPI may fall sharply CPI-Common may barely move That tells the BOC inflation pressure underneath is still sticky.CPI-MedianThis takes all price changes in the CPI basket and finds the middle one.In simple terms: Half the basket rose more Half rose less The “median” price change becomes the inflation reading.Why traders watch itIt removes the impact of extreme outliers.For example: Huge jump in airfare Big drop in gasoline Those extremes do not dominate the measure.Interpretation Rising median = inflation pressure i

Prior week 4 week average 33KCurrent week's 4 week averageEmployment remains solid or at the very least, not reversing hard. The ADP NER Pulse is a newer high-frequency labor market indicator tied to the ADP National Employment Report (NER). It is designed to give traders and economists a more real-time look at hiring trends in the U.S. private sector between the traditional monthly payroll reports.Unlike the standard monthly ADP report, the NER Pulse tracks the week-over-week change in private employment using a four-week moving average. The goal is to smooth out weekly volatility while still giving markets an earlier read on whether hiring is accelerating or slowing.The data is pulled directly from ADP’s payroll processing system, which covers millions of workers across the country. Because it is updated weekly, it can provide clues about labor market momentum well before the government’s monthly nonfarm payroll report is released.Why does it matter to markets?The labor market remains one of the most important drivers for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger NER Pulse can suggest businesses are still hiring aggressively, which may support consumer spending and economic growth but could also keep inflation pressures elevated. That would tend to support higher yields and a firmer U.S. dollar.On the other hand, a weakening pulse may signal slowing labor demand, softer economic activity, and a labor market that is beginning to cool. That could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts and weigh on yields and the dollar.One important thing to remember is that the ADP NER Pulse only measures private-sector employment. It does not include government jobs and does not always match the official nonfarm payroll numbers exactly. Still, because it offers one of the earliest looks at hiring trends, it has become an increasingly important labor-market indicator for traders watching Fed expectations and overall economic momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -8.4%For background on the permits data, Statistics Canada's building permits series is a key leading indicator of construction activity, capturing the value of permits issued for new buildings, renovations, and alterations across roughly 2,400 municipalities representing 95% of the national population. Because permits precede actual construction spending, the data offer an early read on investment trends in both the residential and non-residential sectors. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq's bullish momentum stalls as downside risks mount: pause or start of a correction?Euro area trade surplus narrows in March as energy deficit widens on Middle East conflictOil prices remain persistently elevated amid prolonged US-Iran stalemateThere is potential for a strong dollar rally this week - BarclaysExclusive Crypto Event for Finance Professionals at FMAS:26 in Cape TownUSD/JPY keeps erasing intervention losses as macro backdrop remains skewed to the upsideJust 4% of fund managers see a hard landing - BofA surveyWhat are the main events for today?Iran reaffirms that latest proposal to US includes lifting naval blockade and sanctionsUK labour market eases with dark clouds from Middle East conflict hanging overFX option expiries for 19 May 10am New York cutCaution still up in the air as the US-Iran conflict drags onNVDA Stock Prediction before Earnings on Wed, 20 MayIt's been a rather uneventful session with only the UK jobs report on the agenda. The data was mixed, but overall softer than expected as the unemployment rate ticked higher and the early estimate for April showing a 100K drop in payrolls. The ONS did put out a caveat though in saying that: "the April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year." In the markets, there's still some caution in the air even if Trump called off a large-scale military strike against Iran. For context, he said that the suspension was at the request of Gulf leaders, to allow for peace talks to continue. He added that there is a "good chance" of a deal now that the strike has been called off. The US dollar recouped yesterday's losses as the greenback remains supported amid the US-Iran stalemate, the persistently elevated oil prices, the resilient US data and the potential for Fed rate hikes. These forces are now weighing on the markets more broadly after Treasury yields broke above March highs on Friday. We might have reached a pain point where the only solution is to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.In the American session, we get the Canadian CPI report. Headline CPI is expected to increase to 3.1% vs 2.4% prior, while the more important Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is seen remaining unchanged at 2.2%.We recently got the Canadian employment report and the data showed once again a soft labour market. Governor Macklem stressed that while the Bank would be “looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation”, if it spills into the broader economy, “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. The central bank will likely be watching the Trimmed-Mean CPI for signs of spillovers.Lastly, we have Fed's Waller speaking. I think it's worth highlighting it today because we are approaching the June FOMC meeting and it will contain the SEP and the dot plot. These meetings are generally more important for policy signals.Fed's Waller has been a great "leading indicator" for Fed policy in this cycle and I think the market would react in a big way if he were to change his stance now. He's been worrying about the labour market but the data has been pointing to resilient conditions. What is more in tension now is inflation and if he switches his focus back to that, it might be taken as a signal of potential rate hikes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The good news at least is that the overall trade balance is still running a surplus but that room is narrowing, with it being lesser than the €11.1 billion (revised) surplus in February. In March, the trade balance for energy recorded a deficit of €25.3 billion and that is a marked increase from the €19.7 billion deficit recorded in February.So in terms of monthly change, that is the biggest net contributor to the narrowing trade surplus. At the same time, there is also a smaller surplus recorded for chemicals and related products on the month.But in terms of annual change, the March figure for exports are seen down 5.5% compared to the same month last year with imports seen up 4.4% relative to the same period. Putting those two together, the overall trade balance reflects a sharp decline from March 2025 - which was at €34.1 billion.In terms of year-to-date figures, the euro area trade balance recoded a surplus of €16.6 billion in the first quarter of this year. However, that is way lower than the €55.4 billion recorded in the first quarter of last year. So, that puts things into perspective with the trade situation likely to tighten further as higher energy prices continue to stick in Q2.And as mentioned last month, it will not be strictly tied to just the energy deficit widening:"While the energy deficit widening is the main thing to watch out, there could be a secondary impact on manufacturing too. When energy prices surge higher, it will eventually see energy-intensive production become too expensive. And that will also narrow the trade surplus from the chemicals sector for example." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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Record rise in equity allocations by global fund managers in MayJust 4% of fund managers see hard landing66% of respondents expect Hormuz bottleneck to end in next few months62% of respondents target 6% on 30-year treasury yields, 20% target 4%40% of respondents say second wave of inflation is biggest tail riskCash levels drop to 3.9% from 4.3%, biggest monthly drop since February 2024The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.I wanted to highlight the "just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing" in the headline. I think that's the strongest signal of market optimism if you couple it with the "record rise in equity allocations in May". There's too much optimism priced in the market. Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, I would say that consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.The stock market rally in April was justified by positive expectations about a US-Iran deal and a repricing of negative growth fears, but the parabolic gains in May look "irrational" given the risk asymmetry now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Despite the constant back and forth between the two sides, it doesn't look like much has changed in recent weeks. Iran's deputy foreign minister is out confirming that their latest proposal to the US will still include the same terms laid out before. And that is calling for Washington to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Tehran.Besides that, the proposal is also calling for the US to release frozen funds tied to Iran and also "ending the war" on all fronts including Lebanon. The request is for the US to call a retreat on all of its forces and to exit areas close to Iran.I just don't see how that can be agreed upon, not least when the US is already firm on not wanting to offer up too much concessions. With Iran continuing to keep a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely the US will back down from any military presence around the region now that it has already implemented a blockade.And from early reports, we are already seeing the US likely to shoot down Iran's latest proposal. From yesterday: US rejects Irans most recent proposal - senior official This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight was the UK jobs report. The data was mixed but leaning more on the weaker side. Overall, it doesn't change anything for the BoE. We don't have much for the rest of the session other than the Eurozone trade balance, which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the Canadian CPI report. Headline CPI is expected to increase to 3.1% vs 2.4% prior, while the more important Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is seen remaining unchanged at 2.2%. We recently got the Canadian employment report and the data showed once again a soft labour market. Governor Macklem stressed that while the Bank would be “looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation”, if it spills into the broader economy, “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. The central bank will likely be watching the Trimmed-Mean CPI for signs of spillovers.Lastly, we have Fed's Waller speaking. I think it's worth highlighting it today because we are approaching the June FOMC meeting and it will contain the SEP and the dot plot. These meetings are generally more important for policy signals. Fed's Waller has been a great "leading indicator" for Fed policy in this cycle and I think the market would react in a big way if he were to change his stance now. He's been worrying about the labour market but the data has been pointing to resilient conditions. What is more in tension now is inflation and if he switches his focus back to that, it might be taken as a signal of potential rate hikes. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS08:10 GMT/04:10 ET - BoE's Breeden (neutral - voter)12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)13:55 GMT/09:55 ET - ECB's Makhlouf (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expectedPrior 4.9%Employment change 148k vs 104k expectedPrior 25kAverage weekly earnings +4.1% vs +3.8% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.6%April payrolls change -100kPrior -11k; revised to -28kThose are a softer set of jobs numbers from the UK, with the payrolls change for April also looking rather poor. The 100k drop marks a 0.3% decline in the estimate of payrolled employees to 30.2 million. That comes with the jobless rate also continuing to tick higher, being up 0.5% on the year.On payrolls, ONS is putting out a caveat though in saying that: "The April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year."As for wages, there is a slight divergence with total pay increasing in the three months to March while regular pay is seen dropping in the three months to March. In real terms, the former accelerated to 0.8% (previously 0.6%) while the latter dropped further to 0.1% (previously 0.2%). Still, they continue to represent a slowdown since the latest peak in 2024. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It looked like risk sentiment was bound to take a big knock yesterday but not for some mix of headlines to start the week. First, we had Iranian media saying that the US is to propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped to bring risk trades off their lows before the news was denied by US officials later on. That led to the market mood being not as bad as it was from the start of European trading.After which, US president Trump helped to lift the mood further in calling off a large-scale military strike against Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday. He said that the suspension was at the request of Gulf leaders, to allow for peace talks to continue. He then went on to say that there is a "good chance" of a deal now that the strike has been called off.That at least helped to see Wall Street salvage something towards the end of yesterday.But as we get into the new day, we're starting to see caution get thrown back up in the air. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while bond yields continue to stick at the highs. 10-year yields in the US are at 4.60% with 30-year yields at 5.14% on the day.In other markets, the dollar is also gaining slight ground with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1635 and USD/JPY starting to border near the 159.00 level. On the latter, intervention risks remain high after Japan finance minister delivered another warning shot here. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is also down 0.5% to 0.7130 on the day.In the commodities space, oil prices are off highs from yesterday but are still keeping elevated. Brent crude is holding near $110 while WTI crude (July contract) is sticking at around $102.70, with the latter well off the overnight lows of $98.60.And looking to precious metals, gold is back down by 0.5% to $4,541 with silver down 1.9% to $76.17 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ICYMI (Monday): Japan signals FX intervention readiness, vowing to shield US bond marketICYMI - Iran launches Bitcoin-backed ship insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz transitJapan economy minister backs recovery but warns of Middle East conflict fallout riskRBA minutes: Eight of nine members backed May hike as inflation expectations risk grewJapan Q1 GDP beats forecasts at 2.1% but Iran war energy shock threatens momentumICYMI - EU plans supply chain rules forcing firms to source key parts from three suppliersPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8375 (vs. estimate at 6.7909)PM Albanese secures 600,000 barrels of jet fuel from China as Australia shores up suppliesAustralian May consumer confidence +3.5% m/m to 83.0. Yippee. Prior 80.1USD/JPY on approach to 159! How you left, Ministry of Finance?Japan Q1 GDP 2.1% y/y (beats expected of 1.7%)Hunter: Inflation expectations drifting higher is an elevated risk RBA cannot ignoreMorgan Stanley warns bond rout could trigger equity correction, still sees S&P500 @ 8300New Zealand inflation pressures build as producer prices rise and retail sales dipMUFG: Dollar set to extend gains as Warsh Fed signals hawkish shift on inflationOil futures have reopened for trade, lower on Iran optimismTrump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pauseTrump announces expansion of cheaper drug schemeinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whipICYMI - Goldman cuts US recession odds to 25% as Hormuz closure impact stays containedRBA to address inflation risk from Middle East conflict at Sydney forum. Hunter no dove.US stocks close mixed. Dow closes higher. S&P and Nadaq close lowerSummary:Trump announced a delay to planned military strikes on Iran following requests from Gulf allies, supporting risk sentiment and weighing on the USD and oil prices during the US Monday sessionTrump followed up with upbeat afternoon comments, saying there appears to be a good chance a nuclear deal with Iran can be reached, though repeated claims of having won the war have eroded his credibility with marketsThe USD recovered modest ground during the Asian session, with AUD, NZD, GBP and JPY all retreating; USD/JPY pushed toward 159 before stabilisingJapan Q1 GDP grew an annualised 2.1%, beating the 1.7% forecast, though analysts warn the Iran war energy shock is set to slow growth sharply in Q2RBA May meeting minutes showed the board raised the cash rate to 4.35%, its third consecutive hike, while signalling the move gives it time to assess the conflict's impact, flagging a possible pause in June; August remains live and event-dependentThe PBOC set the yuan midpoint at its strongest level since 24 March 2023The Nikkei reversed early gains of more than 1% to fall 0.64% to 60,429.76 by the midday break, set for a fourth consecutive session of losses; the broader Topix rose 0.37% to 3,840.7The South Korean won fell 0.7% during the sessionIndia's state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the second time in less than a weekUS Vice President JD Vance will deliver the White House press briefing on Wednesday at 1pm Eastern timeMonday's US session was defined by a sharp pivot in geopolitical sentiment after President Donald Trump announced he was delaying planned military strikes against Iran following requests from Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, who argued that a diplomatic resolution was within reach. The news provided a meaningful boost to risk assets, weighed on the US dollar and pulled oil prices lower as markets repriced the immediate probability of a military escalation.Trump reinforced the tone in afternoon remarks, saying there appeared to be a good chance a nuclear deal with Iran could be worked out. Markets received the comments with cautious optimism rather than conviction, however. Trump's repeated assertions over recent months that the US had effectively won the conflict have worn thin with traders, and the credibilit

China's April retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest since 2022, while industrial output grew only 4.1%, badly missing forecasts, as the Iran war and sluggish domestic demand weighed. Summary:China's National Bureau of Statistics reported April industrial output growth of 4.1% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in March and well below the 5.9% forecast, while retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest reading since December 2022, against a forecast of 2% growth, according to Reuters.Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, reversing a 1.7% rise in the January-March period, with domestic car sales falling 21.6% year-on-year for a seventh consecutive monthly decline.The NBS described the international environment as grim and complicated, called for more proactive fiscal measures and moderately accommodative monetary policy, and flagged a prominent domestic supply-demand imbalance, though the Politburo offered no concrete new stimulus beyond reiterating existing policy language.China's economy expanded 5.0% in the first quarter, at the top of Beijing's 4.5% to 5.0% full-year target range, but analysts warned the recovery was already running on uneven ground, with the Iran war adding external pressure to an economy still weighed down by a prolonged property market downturn. China's economy lost significant momentum in April, with industrial output and retail sales both badly missing forecasts, as the compounding pressures of higher energy costs from the Iran war and chronically weak domestic demand took hold.Factory output rose 4.1% from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from the 5.7% recorded in March and the slowest pace of growth since July 2023. The reading fell well short of analyst expectations centred on 5.9% growth. Retail sales, the primary gauge of household consumption, rose just 0.2% in April, cooling sharply from 1.7% in March and marking the weakest gain since December 2022, against a forecast of 2%.The weakness was broad-based. Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, reversing a 1.7% expansion in the January-March period. Domestic car sales fell 21.6% year-on-year in April, a seventh consecutive monthly decline, even as Chinese automakers pushed harder into overseas markets to compensate for anaemic home demand. Property investment contraction also widened in April on an annual basis, extending a drag on growth that has persisted for several years.China's statistics bureau described the international environment as grim (THAT is VERY blunt!) and complicated, warning that global recovery momentum was facing greater headwinds. Officials called for more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary conditions, and acknowledged a prominent domestic supply-demand imbalance. However, the Politburo's reiteration of existing policy language at its most recent meeting offered no signal of imminent additional stimulus, a point likely to disappoint markets seeking a more forceful response.The April data offered an early indication that the economy's 5.0% first-quarter expansion, which came in at the top of Beijing's 4.5% to 5.0% full-year target range, may prove difficult to sustain. Better-than-expected exports and domestic fuel price controls have provided some insulation from the energy shock, but rising input costs and fragile consumption leave limited room for further slippage if the Iran conflict drags on.---The breadth of the April miss, spanning industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, signals that China's first-quarter momentum was already fading before the Iran war's full impact fed through. Weak domestic consumption combined with rising energy input costs is a particularly unfavourable combination for manufacturers, threatening to squeeze margins further and limit any export-led offset. The absence of concrete new stimulus signals from the Politburo, which reiterated existing policy language without announcing fresh meas

China April data misses badly, Iran war and weak demand weigh. Retail sales growth plunge.China April Retail Sales +0.2% y/y (exp 2%) & Industrial Prduction +4.1% y/y (exp 5.9%)Iran war economic toll deepens as global oil stocks near exhaustionJapan's 10-year bond yield hits 1996 high as fresh debt plans emerge. Extra budget comingChinese House Price Index continues to slump: April -3.5% y/y (prior -3.4%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8435 (vs. estimate at 6.8086)Singapore April 2026 non-oil exports +24.5% y/y vs prior 15.30%Zcash surges 1,140% in a year as bitcoin pioneers back privacy tokenSouth Korea exchange halt as KOSPI futures slammed limit lowerUS net oil exporter status shields dollar from energy shock hitting peersUK housing prices rise but employer confidence stays near record lowAnnie Duke on the investing mistakes that quietly destroy most portfoliosNew Zealand services sector contracts again in April as fuel costs biteUS futures are open for the week's trade, oil up and equites (minor) downCurrie warns US oil inventory on course to hit rock bottom, no buffer left to draw onClock is ticking: Trump threatens Iran with annihilation over stalled peace talksAxios says Trump is waiting for a response from Iranweekend news - Drone hits UAE nuclear plant as Iran war deadlock deepensNewsquawk Week in Focus: NVDA earnings, UK, Canadian, Japanese and NZ inflationHeads up for Trump situation room meeting called for tuesday - military option discussionMonday open levels, indicative FX prices, 18 May 2026Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell?Summary:Oil prices extended gains as Iran war ceasefire talks stalled, a drone struck a UAE nuclear facility, and Trump is expected to convene a Tuesday Situation Room meeting on military options against Tehran, with the president warning Iran the clock is ticking.US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year climbing to 4.631%, its highest since February 2025, and the 30-year hitting a one-year high of 5.159%, as rising oil prices fuelled inflation fears and reinforced bets on further rate hikes.South Korea's KOSPI triggered a sidecar halt for a second consecutive session with the index falling as much as 4.68% before recovering, with Samsung and its labour union entering government-mediated pay talks to avert a strike at a company accounting for nearly a quarter of Korean exports, per Yonhap.Japan confirmed plans to issue fresh debt to fund a supplementary budget aimed at cushioning the economic blow from the Middle East conflict, with PM Takaichi directing the finance minister to explore funding options including an expanded budgetChina's April data broadly disappointed, with retail sales rising just 0.2%, the weakest since December 2022, industrial output slowing to 4.1%, and fixed-asset investment contracting 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, while new home prices recorded a 35th consecutive monthly decline.Bitcoin weakened to its lowest level in more than two weeks as risk sentiment deteriorated across asset classes.Global markets were roiled on Monday as a toxic combination of surging oil prices, rising bond yields and deepening geopolitical strains from the Iran war sent equities lower across Asia, extending the losses that swept Wall Street at the end of last week.Oil was the dominant driver. Prices extended gains after efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran appeared to have stalled, a drone struck a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates, and reports emerged that President Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers in a Tuesday Situation Room session to discuss military options. Trump also warned publicly that the clock was ticking for Iran and that Tehran must move quickly or face destruction, language that markets read as raising the probability of resumed military action. A first meeting with his security team took place on Saturday.Bond markets bore the brunt of the oil-driven inflation fear. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climb

The risk mood is looking rather dour as we look to get into European trading later. The US-Iran conflict continues to drag on, with no real progress over the weekend. And that is making for a very dicey start to the new week today.Iran is now charging a toll for ships looking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and even then it will only be limited to exceptions to some of its allies. To those aligning themselves with the US, there will be no such passage. And while that is going on, the US naval blockade also continues to stay in place.All in all, it doesn't mean much. The strait remains in de facto closure with the only vessels passing through being small regional cargo ships, Iranian coastal ships, and a few Chinese vessels that are heavily escorted and permitted by the Iranian navy. And even then, the traffic from these ships still resembles a ghost town. The key thing remains that no oil and gas tankers are passing through.As such, we're bracing ourselves for another week of the status quo being prolonged. And the toll on markets is also starting to show up, more evidently in the bond market.Treasury yields sold off heavily in the second half of last week with 10-year yields now shooting up to 4.62% and 30-year yields up to 5.14%. Both are hitting fresh one-year highs as the bond market is screaming that inflation worries are starting to balloon up and there will be a major toll on the economy.And it is not just in the US, we're seeing the same in Europe as well.On Friday, 10-year bond yields in France shot up to 3.97% - its highest since 2009. Meanwhile, 30-year yields jumped up to 4.66% - its highest since late 2008. In Germany, 10-year yields jumped to 3.18% and 30-year yields to 3.68% - both the highest since 2011.With fiscal worries already a major concern in the likes of France since last year, this latest episode is just piling on the pressure on Europe's second largest economy.In Japan, we also briefly saw 30-year yields hit 4.20% earlier today. If the government wasn't all too worried about fiscal concerns before, they surely are now. And that just piles on top of the Takaichi trade that is continuing to run in the background.In turn, we're starting to see all of this translate to perhaps the start of a corrective move in equities.After wiping out its weekly gains on Friday, US stocks are bracing themselves for another downbeat session later today. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.6% with Nasdaq futures down by 0.5% currently.Looking to Europe, DAX futures are down 0.9% while CAC 40 futures are down 1.5% at the moment.It's looking quite rough out there as other asset classes are finally starting to heed the warning signal sent out from the bond market. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, as it's usually the case for Mondays, we don't have anything on the agenda. Markets will likely stay rangebound or extend the risk-off moves that started on Friday. The focus remains on the US-Iran stalemate as we enter the 12th week since the Strait of Hormuz got closed. Both parties remain adamant on their conditions, which raises the risk of a longer deadlock or even a resumption of hostilities. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just have the US NAHB Housing Market Index. Housing data haven't been market-moving releases this cycle. The market is now more concerned about the length of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Fed potentially being forced to hike at some point.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS07:35 GMT/03:35 ET - BoE's Greene (hawkish - voter)08:30 GMT/04:30 ET - BoE's Mann (neutral - voter)12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Venable (neutral - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This just means that the fiscal worries will continue to mount, adding to the already damaging reputation for the yen currency amid the Takaichi trade from before.The report says that the Japanese government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of its funding for a planned extra budget. This budget is largely to help to cushion against the economic blow from the fallout amid the Middle East conflict.The mounting speculation of this extra budget is already hitting at markets, with 10-year Japanese bond yields hitting 2.80% earlier today with 30-year yields rising to briefly clip a record 4.20% level.The extra budget is said to focus on subsidies such as gasoline and utility bills, to help with households. That considering Japan has been hit hard by the surge in oil prices, having to be heavily reliant on fuel imports.For now, there's no word on what the size of the extra budget will be. However, just the fact alone that a fresh round of debt will have to be issued is another blow to the Takaichi administration. Since taking over last year, she already had to do so much work to convince markets that her government is still on a responsible fiscal path. And then now, we're seeing this.It certainly does complicate things back home, especially the political ramifications. And this is not yet to address the economic damage done to Japan as the US-Iran war continues to rage on.It is expected that the extra budget will be compiled around June or July. And this certainly does complicate things for the BOJ as well.The central bank is under pressure to raise interest rates amid surging price pressures, but don't want to seem desperate in deciding on that just to defend a falling yen currency.But at the same time, fiscal concerns and worsening economic conditions are two major pain points that the BOJ has to try and help balance out as well. So, they are put in a very tough spot.I don't see how in any which way that the rout in the Japanese bond market will stop. There is a good chance that 10-year yields will look to 3% and that bodes very ill for the outlook of the yen currency - more so than it already is. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Iranian and Omani technical teams met last week in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of HormuzProcess of talks through Pakistani mediation is ongoingBoth Iran and the US have sent their comments on the recent Iranian proposalTehran's demands in negotiations with the US include releasing Iranian frozen funds and lifting sanctionsIran’s foreign ministry says that indirect diplomatic channels with the US remain active despite recent escalations. Iranian and Omani technical teams held meetings in Oman last week to negotiate a dedicated mechanism aimed at securing safe transit through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside these maritime security talks, Tehran clarified that the broader process of dialogue is traversing a very difficult course through Pakistani mediation, with both the US and Iran having officially exchanged formal comments and counter-proposals regarding recent framework for peace. Trump issued a warning on Truth Social, declaring that the clock is ticking for Iran and urging the country to move fast to secure a deal or face total devastation. The White House has previously labeled Iran’s proposal, which demands an end to the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of broad economic sanctions, release of frozen funds and guarantees against future attacks, as totally unacceptable. US's own strict parameters demand that Iran surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and accept a multi-decade enrichment moratorium, exposing massive deadlocks that the Pakistani mediators are struggling to bridge.This stalemate is now starting to weigh on global financial markets. We saw a sharp surge in US Treasury yields on Friday, well past their previous March highs. Market participants price in persistent inflation risks, with risks of the Fed being forced to hike rates at some point. We have now 50% chance of a rate hike expected by year-end. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Release of strategic oil reserves have added 2.5 million bpd to the marketHowever, they are not endlessThere is a perception gap between the physical oil market and futuresCommercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly, only a few weeks leftThis continues his warning from last month, in saying that Europe could run out of jet fuel in about six weeks. So, we're starting to push towards the edge of the situation caused by the Middle East conflict now.Even if it may not be entirely evident, make no mistake that global oil inventories are falling at a record pace.The point about there being a "perception gap" between physical prices and futures is a key fact that market players might not be factoring in. That especially if you consider how calm investors in the equities market have been, that is before the bond market blew up towards the end of last week.Still, not everyone shares the same view as the IEA chief though.A couple of energy firms and even the likes of Air France and British Airways have announced that they have enough supplies to last through the summer. And that means covering the peak travel season that will typically see take place in the months ahead.One energy consultant is also quite optimistic about the situation, arguing that the release of strategic inventories by the IEA will help to cover about 34% of Europe's jet fuel supply deficit that was seen during last year. Meanwhile, the rest of the gap can be filled by increased imports from the likes of the US and Nigeria. More on that from the FT here (may be gated). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This is coming from the Iranian camp, as reported by Tasnim News agency. THe report says that the US has agreed to propose a temporary waiver of Iran oil sanctions during negotiations, with this set to be administered via a temporary OFAC exemption until a final agreement is reached between both sides.Iran is trying to push for all sanctions to be removed but so far, the report suggests that the US is only willing to go this far.S&P 500 futures briefly erased losses but is now back down by 0.2% on the day. Meanwhile, we are also seeing the dollar lose a bit of ground while oil prices are being knocked lower. WTI crude (July contract) is now down 0.2% to $100.85 on the day but fell to as low as $100.16 moments ago. It was trading around $102.30 levels before the headlines came about. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:US reportedly to temporarily waive Iran sanctions in new draft proposalIran's ForMin Spokesperson says process of talks through Pakistani mediation is ongoingIEA chief warns that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidlyGold remains under pressure amid worries of Fed rate hikes, prolonged US-Iran stalemateSurging bond yields are a major pain point for equities at the momentJapan government likely to issue fresh debt to fund extra budget - reportBOE policymaker Breeden says no need to rush in taking next policy stepBoE's Greene: We should not be looking through negative supply shocksMarkets:WTI crude down 0.2% to $100.80 on the dayS&P 500 futures down 0.2%, DAX up 0.7%, CAC 40 down 0.4%US 10-year yields at 4.58%, France 10-year yields at 3.95%, Germany 10-year yields at 3.16%US dollar slightly lower across the board after trading little changed early onGold up 0.3% to $4,553Bitcoin down 1.2% to $77,290It was a quiet session for the most part as the US-Iran conflict drags on for another day/week. It now 80 days since the war started, in case anyone is counting.For the most part, risk trades were more cautious during the session as we saw a more defensive mood in Asia trading. That persisted until moments ago, where we got a report from Iranian media that the US is set to propose a temporary waiver to oil sanctions as both sides look to negotiate further.It's a bit of a concession on the part of Washington but we will have to wait to see how credible the headlines are later today. Oil prices were keeping higher for most of the session, with WTI crude (July contract) seen at $102.30 before falling off to $100.80 now after the headlines.For now at least, it is helping to alleviate some pressure off risk trades. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.6% earlier on but briefly pared losses on the news before holding down by 0.2% currently.In Europe, it's a mixed mood with the DAX seen up 0.7% while the CAC 40 is down 0.4% on the day. This comes as the pressure continues in the bond market after the selloff on Friday. France's fiscal worries are starting to rear their ugly head again with 10-year yields there hitting near 4% at the end of last week.While the rout in the bond market is easing off a little, we are still seeing yields keep at the highs. And that continues to apply pressure to the overall risk mood in markets so far today. 10-year yields in the US are at 4.59% with 30-year yields at 5.12% currently - both keeping at one-year highs.In the major currencies space, the dollar is down slightly at the balance after a steadier start to the week. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1640 while USD/JPY is flat at 158.80 on the day. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.7160 with the mood helped by the headlines involving the temporary sanctions waiver above.As for precious metals, we are seeing gold and silver recover off early lows in Asia with the former up 0.3% to $4,553 and the latter up 0.5% to $76.30 on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

erAl Arabiay is reporting:Iran agrees to a long-term nuclear freeze in lieu of a complete dismantlingThey have withdrawn demand for compensation. Instead demanding economic concessionsWould like to transfer enriched uranium to Russia instead of the USSeeking multiple international guaranteesWant a gradual and safe opening of the Strait of HormuzA solution comes with dialogue. Of course the "Long term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantlement" is a key phrase. What does that mean specifically?. How is it monitored? Or is it too much like Obama's JCPOA and therefore a non-starter for Trump.Crude oil has moved lower and trades near $99, down over $2 or 2%. Getting and staying below $100. Stocks have moved higher with the Dow now up 91 points in pre-market trading, S&P is up 24 points and the Nasdaq is up 160 points. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 34NAHB housing index rises 3 to 37 vs 34 estimateSales conditions rose by +3 to 40Buyer Traffic was also up +3 to 25Sales expectations rose +3 to 45.The latest NAHB Housing Market Index survey showed builders were slightly less aggressive on outright price cuts in May, with 32% reducing prices versus 36% in April. However, the average discount increased to 6% from 5%, suggesting that while fewer builders are cutting prices, those who are may be offering deeper reductions to attract buyers.Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives remained elevated at 61%, up slightly from 60% in April. That marks the 14th straight month in which at least 60% of builders have used incentives, underscoring continued pressure on the housing market from affordability challenges and softer buyer demand.Levels below the 50 level are still considered contractionary despite the gains on the month and values better than expectations.NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio said:“The housing market remains soft as higher mortgage rates, rising gas prices and economic uncertainty related to the war in Iran continue to dampen buyer demand. However, efforts in the House to modify the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act could increase the nation’s housing supply and help ease builder concerns.”NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz added:.“Recent increases for long-term interest rates will continue to hold back home buyer demand. Although some regional markets, including parts of the Midwest, are showing relative strength, the housing market continues to face significant affordability challenges.”Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 40 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Axios is reporting:US rejects the most recent proposal from IranWhite House considers it not to be a meaningful improvement Iran not making meaningful concessions on its nuclear program.Calls the improvements only "Token improvements" on the last version.US senior official says that " We are not making a lot of progress. We are at a very serious place today. The pressure is on them to be responsive in the right way" The squeeze continues. Crude oil is trading sharply higher, with the July contract up $1.76, or 1.74%, at $102.84. The session has been volatile, with prices trading as low as $98.60 before surging to an intraday high of $104.37 as geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to support the market.Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are also edging higher, although the gains remain modest. The 10-year yield is currently up 0.6 basis points at 4.601%, holding near the highest levels going back to May 2025 as traders continue to balance inflation concerns against slowing growth expectations.In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is ticking modestly higher in trading today, but it still remains mostly lower versus the major currency pairs overall. Leading the gains against the greenback is the GBPUSD, which is up 0.51%, while the NZDUSD is also showing solid strength with a rise of 0.36%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Earlier reports suggesting the United States had agreed to lift oil sanctions while negotiations continue have now been denied by a U.S. official, helping reverse the sharp selloff seen earlier in crude oil trading. The clarification quickly shifted sentiment back toward tighter supply concerns and renewed buying interest in the energy market.As a result, crude oil prices have rebounded strongly and are now trading up around 2% on the day near $103.00. Earlier in the session, prices had fallen sharply to a low of $98.60 as traders reacted to the initial headlines. However, that decline stalled at a key technical support zone.The low price held near the 200-hour moving average at $98.88 and just above the 50% midpoint of the trading range from the April high, which comes in at $98.30. Buyers leaned against that support area, helping stabilize the market and keeping the broader bullish bias intact.Momentum shifted more firmly back to the upside after the price moved back above the 100-hour moving average at $101.17. That break gave buyers renewed control from a short-term technical perspective and opened the door for a retest of today’s high at $104.37.If buyers can push above that level, traders will next target a downward-sloping trend line that currently comes in near $105.85. A break above that trend line would strengthen the bullish technical picture further and could lead to another extension higher in crude oil prices.Buyers remain more in control technically. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan's finance minister Katayama says:Seeing speculative moves in the financial marketsvolatility in oil prices is affecting Forex marketTold G7 we needed to take action to correct global imbalances. We need to address risks regarding MythosTold G7 that we should be united against China's export control of critical materials. Need to closely monitor financial marketsNo comment on whether Japan intervened in the FX market. Japan will take appropriate action against Forex volatilityThe USDJPY remains near the middle of the 158.00 – 160.00 swing area that confined most of the trading going back to March 11 through April 29. Since the tumble lower on April 30 on speculation of intervention, the price remained below that area until last Thursday. On Friday the price based against the high of a swing area near 158.23, and today the moment took the price up to a high of 159.08.Traders will be looking for a break either of the 160.00 level on topside or a break below support at 158.00 on the downside This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The jury ruled against Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAIJury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman. Case was thrown out because the claims were filed after the statute of limitations expired. Jury deliberated for less than two hours. Musk alleged OpenAI “stole a charity” by shifting from nonprofit to for-profit. OpenAI argued Musk knew about and supported the for-profit structure. OpenAI claimed Musk turned against the company after failing to gain control. Musk’s legal team said it reserves the right to appeal. Musk sought removal of Sam Altman and Greg Brockman from leadership roles. Musk also sought reversal of OpenAI’s governance changes and more than $180 billion in damages. Trial highlighted growing rivalry among major AI firms including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Musk’s AI venture. OpenAI is pursuing a future public listing while Anthropic has gained momentum in the AI race. Musk is reportedly working toward a public offering tied to SpaceX and his AI business. Musk attorney Steven Molo said multiple witnesses called Altman a liar under oath. OpenAI attorney William Savitt said Musk resorts to lawsuits instead of competing in AI. Witnesses included Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Mira Murati, Ilya Sutskever, and Shivon Zilis. Trial revealed internal OpenAI documents tied to the company’s founding and the 2023 “blip” when Altman was briefly fired and reinstated. Greg Brockman testified his OpenAI stake is worth nearly $30 billion.Both Musk and Altman have IPOs on their mind now. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

President Trump has called off the war dogs. Trump was to meet with the War cabinet tomorrow regarding the next attack on Iran, but Trump is posting that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Pres. of the UAE, asked him to hold off on the planned military attack citing serious negotiations are now taking place. Crude oil is back down to $102.37 currently. That is down from $105.21. The price is still above the 100 hour MA at $101.23 and the 200 hour MA at $98.92. There is a swing area between $97.34 to $98.58 as well. Get below those levels and stay below, and we can talk about the potential for more selling. The Nasdaq index has seen a bounce off the lows, but the Nasdaq and the S&P still remain down on the day. The S&P is down -30 point or -0.41% at 7379. The Nasdaq is down -233 points or -0.89% at 25996. The lows were at 7353.17 and 25867.30. for each of those indices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs cuts its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 30%, with chief economist Jan Hatzius citing resilient activity and easing financial conditions despite the Strait of Hormuz closure.Summary:US recession probability cut to 25% from 30%, with economic activity holding up and financial conditions easing back below pre-war levelsThree factors cited for the moderate growth impact: oil prices rising less than feared, demand destruction absorbing physical shortages, and supportive fiscal policy, AI momentum and financial conditionsHigh pre-war inventories and market confidence that extreme consumer price rises would force a US policy shift have capped the oil price responsePhysical shortages in jet fuel and similar products have been met via a large shift to renewables in China and reduced schedules on lower-value flight routes globallyGoldman's baseline assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens gradually, beginning soon and completing in late June, with Brent seen stable near term before dipping to $90 per barrel by year-endHatzius flags that risks remain tilted toward worse outcomes, including higher oil prices and greater economic damageGoldman Sachs has trimmed its estimate of the probability of a US recession within the next 12 months to 25%, down from 30%, as evidence mounts that the global economy has absorbed the shock of a 10-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz with less damage than many feared.Chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed to the resilience of economic activity and noted that Goldman Sachs Research's financial conditions index has now eased back below the levels recorded before the conflict with Iran began. That reversal is a meaningful signal. Financial conditions tightened sharply in the early weeks of the crisis but have since normalised, reducing one of the most direct transmission channels through which geopolitical shocks typically slow growth.Hatzius identified three distinct reasons why the Hormuz closure has so far proved less economically destructive than anticipated. First, oil prices have not surged as aggressively as pre-conflict models would have suggested. Two factors explain that relative restraint: crude inventories were unusually high heading into the conflict, providing a meaningful buffer, and markets never fully priced in the worst-case supply scenario because traders consistently expected that severe consumer price increases would eventually force a shift in US policy.Second, physical shortages in refined products, most notably jet fuel, have been absorbed through what Hatzius describes as relatively low-cost demand destruction. China has accelerated its already rapid shift toward renewable energy sources, and airlines have trimmed schedules on routes where yield and load factors make continued flying uneconomic. Neither response has generated the kind of acute economic disruption that a hard supply cliff would have triggered.Third, the broader macro backdrop has remained supportive. Fiscal policy has continued to provide a cushion, the artificial intelligence investment boom has kept business spending buoyant, and financial conditions, apart from a brief tightening episode in March, have been accommodative throughout the year.On the oil price outlook, Goldman's baseline projects Brent to hold steady in the near term before gradually declining to $90 per barrel by year-end. That forecast rests on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening shortly and that the process completes by late June. Hatzius was careful, however, to note that the distribution of risks around that base case is not symmetric. The balance of probabilities, in Goldman's view, still tilts toward higher oil prices and greater economic damage rather than a smoother resolution.---Goldman's revised recession probability and a relatively benign Brent forecast will offer some reassurance to risk assets, but the bank's own warning that outcomes remain skewed to the downside keeps a meaningful tail risk p

US stocks close mixed. Dow closes higher. S&P and Nadaq close lowerFed's Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chairTrump: Stops the planned attack on Iran on request from Saudi's and UAEJury rules against Elon Musk and for Sam Altman and OpenAI.Japan's Finance Minister Katayama seeing speculative moves in the financial marketsOfficial: Report that US has agreed to lift oil sanctions while talks unfold, are false:European shares close mostly higher on the dayUS Senior Official: US rejects Irans most recent proposalNAHB housing market Index for May 37 versus 34 estimateAl Arabiya: Iran agrees to long-term nuclear freeze in lieu of a complete dismantling.investingLive European markets wrap: A more cautionary mood; US to waive Iran sanctions?US reportedly to temporarily waive Iran sanctions in new draft proposalSilver converges lower with gold on surging real yields amid Fed hikes risk. What's next?Iran submitted a response to an earlier US proposal to end the war through mediator Pakistan, signaling it was focused entirely on ending the conflict but notably not addressing nuclear matters — leaving a significant gap between the two sides.Trump called Iran's response "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE," though he did not specify which aspects he objected to. The US Ambassador to the UN said Trump was giving diplomacy every chance before resuming military action, while Netanyahu said there was still work to be done on dismantling Iranian enrichment sites and ballistic missiles.Trump then announced Monday he was calling off a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday, after receiving personal requests from the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to hold off in order to allow for serious negotiations. The pause is firmly conditional — Trump instructed Defense Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Cain to remain prepared to launch a full, large-scale assault on a moment's notice if an acceptable deal is not reached.The news caused some ups and downs in the market - especially the stock and oil market. The US stocks opened higher but gave up the gains which saw the Nasdaq move down -357 points at the low, the S&P down -55.32 points at the low and the Dow down -173.01 at the low. However, by the close, the prices had rebounded. The final numbers show:Nasdaq -134.41 or -0.51% at 26090.73.S&P index -5.45 points or -0.07% at 7403.04Dow industrial average +160.02 points or 0.32% have 49690.96Crude oil prices also rode the wave of news headlines and had a trading range near seven dollars. The low for the day reached $98.60 while the high extended to $105.21.The price is trading at $102.48 – still of on the day but nearly 3 dollars off the high price.US yields were also volatile with the gains being raised as oil fell and the USD declined. At the end of day2 year yield 4.045%, -3.8 basis points5 year yield 4.235%, -2.3 basis points10-year yield 4.581%, -1.0 basis points30 year yield 51124%, -0.4 basis pointsIN the forex the greenback was lower versus the major currencies:EURUSD: The EURUSD extended to fresh session highs in the final hours of trading, reaching 1.1660 and moving above the prior target at 1.16551. That breakout shifts the focus higher, with the next key upside target coming against the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.1674. Above that, traders will look toward the 200-day moving average and the broken 38.2% retracement level near 1.1681.On the downside, former resistance between 1.1637 and 1.1646 is now expected to act as support. Staying above that zone keeps the buyers more in control heading into the new trading day.USDJPY: The USDJPY traded in volatile back-and-forth fashion, moving up, down, back up again, and then lower into the close. The pair stalled twice near 159.08, establishing that level as a key resistance ceiling for buyers.On the downside, support developed near 158.56–158.59, defined by the e

US President Trump says the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times.Scheme will have more than 600 generics added.This will help many people out. Kudos where its due, well done. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand producer input prices rose 1.4% in Q1 and output prices gained 0.8%, while electronic card retail sales fell 1.3% in April, Statistics New Zealand data showed on Tuesday. Summary: Source: Statistics New Zealand, released Tuesday 18 May 2026.Q1 producer price index inputs rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior quarterQ1 producer price index outputs gained 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.1% previouslyThe input-output gap signals producers are absorbing a portion of cost increases rather than passing them fully throughElectronic card retail sales fell 1.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, reversing a 0.7% gain in MarchTotal card spending declined 1.6% month-on-month in April, against a prior reading of plus 1.3%On an annual basis, actual electronic card retail sales were up 2.0% compared with April a year earlierElectronic card data covers approximately 68% of core retail sales and is the primary monthly gauge of consumer activity New Zealand's latest economic data presents a challenging picture for policymakers, with producer prices rising sharply in the first quarter even as consumer spending showed signs of fatigue heading into the second.Producer price index inputs climbed 1.4% in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, a substantial reversal from the 0.5% decline recorded in the prior quarter. Output prices, measuring what producers charge for their goods and services, rose a more modest 0.8% over the same period, against a prior reading of just 0.1%. The gap between the two measures is telling. New Zealand producers are facing meaningfully higher costs than they are recouping through their selling prices, a margin squeeze that typically either weighs on business profitability or feeds through into consumer prices with a lag.The input cost acceleration is particularly notable given the global backdrop. Elevated energy prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure have pushed up transport and manufacturing costs across import-dependent economies, and New Zealand, with its heavy reliance on imported goods, is not insulated from those pressures. The first quarter data captures only the early weeks of the conflict's impact, suggesting further upward pressure on input costs may still be in the pipeline.On the consumer side, the picture shifted notably in April. Seasonally adjusted electronic card retail sales fell 1.3% from March, reversing the 0.7% gain recorded the prior month. Total card spending, a broader measure, dropped 1.6% month-on-month after rising 1.3% previously. Statistics New Zealand's electronic card series covers around 68% of core retail activity and is the country's principal monthly read on consumer demand, giving the April softness considerable weight.The annual comparison offers modest reassurance, with actual card sales running 2.0% above April a year ago, but the monthly direction of travel will be the more closely watched figure for markets assessing the trajectory of New Zealand household spending into the middle of the year.---The combination of accelerating input costs and a monthly retreat in consumer spending presents the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a stagflationary undertone that complicates its policy calculus. Input prices rising at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, following a 0.5% contraction in the prior period, represents a meaningful swing that will feed into the RBNZ's inflation projections. The 1.3% monthly drop in electronic card retail sales, covering roughly two-thirds of core retail activity, suggests the consumer is beginning to feel the squeeze, limiting the case for tightening even as cost pressures build upstream. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Q1 GDP (preliminary):GDP annualised: +2.1% (vs 1.7% exp, 1.3% prev)GDP quarter-on-quarter: +0.5% (vs 0.4% exp, 0.3% prev)Private consumption Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 0.3% prev)Capital expenditure Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 1.3% prev)External demand Q/Q: +0.3% (vs 0.2% exp, 0.0% prev)The price index from the GDP results is running hot at 3.4% y/yexpected 3.1%, prior 3.4% alsoI'll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac's survey of consumer sentiment remains deeply sad. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.