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Record rise in equity allocations by global fund managers in MayJust 4% of fund managers see hard landing66% of respondents expect Hormuz bottleneck to end in next few months62% of respondents target 6% on 30-year treasury yields, 20% target 4%40% of respondents say second wave of inflation is biggest tail riskCash levels drop to 3.9% from 4.3%, biggest monthly drop since February 2024The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.I wanted to highlight the "just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing" in the headline. I think that's the strongest signal of market optimism if you couple it with the "record rise in equity allocations in May". There's too much optimism priced in the market. Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, I would say that consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.The stock market rally in April was justified by positive expectations about a US-Iran deal and a repricing of negative growth fears, but the parabolic gains in May look "irrational" given the risk asymmetry now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight was the UK jobs report. The data was mixed but leaning more on the weaker side. Overall, it doesn't change anything for the BoE. We don't have much for the rest of the session other than the Eurozone trade balance, which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the Canadian CPI report. Headline CPI is expected to increase to 3.1% vs 2.4% prior, while the more important Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is seen remaining unchanged at 2.2%. We recently got the Canadian employment report and the data showed once again a soft labour market. Governor Macklem stressed that while the Bank would be “looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation”, if it spills into the broader economy, “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. The central bank will likely be watching the Trimmed-Mean CPI for signs of spillovers.Lastly, we have Fed's Waller speaking. I think it's worth highlighting it today because we are approaching the June FOMC meeting and it will contain the SEP and the dot plot. These meetings are generally more important for policy signals. Fed's Waller has been a great "leading indicator" for Fed policy in this cycle and I think the market would react in a big way if he were to change his stance now. He's been worrying about the labour market but the data has been pointing to resilient conditions. What is more in tension now is inflation and if he switches his focus back to that, it might be taken as a signal of potential rate hikes. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS08:10 GMT/04:10 ET - BoE's Breeden (neutral - voter)12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)13:55 GMT/09:55 ET - ECB's Makhlouf (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Despite the constant back and forth between the two sides, it doesn't look like much has changed in recent weeks. Iran's deputy foreign minister is out confirming that their latest proposal to the US will still include the same terms laid out before. And that is calling for Washington to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Tehran.Besides that, the proposal is also calling for the US to release frozen funds tied to Iran and also "ending the war" on all fronts including Lebanon. The request is for the US to call a retreat on all of its forces and to exit areas close to Iran.I just don't see how that can be agreed upon, not least when the US is already firm on not wanting to offer up too much concessions. With Iran continuing to keep a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely the US will back down from any military presence around the region now that it has already implemented a blockade.And from early reports, we are already seeing the US likely to shoot down Iran's latest proposal. From yesterday: US rejects Irans most recent proposal - senior official This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Among those who used crypto for payments, over 25% said they did so because the business preferred crypto, citing speed, privacy and lower cost advantages.

Several SEC officials reportedly didn’t support the decision, while tokenization platform Securitize flagged risks with enabling third-party platforms to issue tokenized stocks.

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds onto its 10-day losses against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday.

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.18% lower to near 1.1635 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside journey amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year.

Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after registering 2.36% of gains in the previous day, trading around $76.30 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Safe-haven demand for Silver fades as risk aversion eases after US President Donald Trump announced he was delaying a planned military strike on Iran.

The GBP/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 213.15 during the early European session on Tuesday. The stronger-than-expected Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter (Q1) provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a headwind for the cross.

ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expectedPrior 4.9%Employment change 148k vs 104k expectedPrior 25kAverage weekly earnings +4.1% vs +3.8% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.6%April payrolls change -100kPrior -11k; revised to -28kThose are a softer set of jobs numbers from the UK, with the payrolls change for April also looking rather poor. The 100k drop marks a 0.3% decline in the estimate of payrolled employees to 30.2 million. That comes with the jobless rate also continuing to tick higher, being up 0.5% on the year.On payrolls, ONS is putting out a caveat though in saying that: "The April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year."As for wages, there is a slight divergence with total pay increasing in the three months to March while regular pay is seen dropping in the three months to March. In real terms, the former accelerated to 0.8% (previously 0.6%) while the latter dropped further to 0.1% (previously 0.2%). Still, they continue to represent a slowdown since the latest peak in 2024. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin has fallen about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800, but underlying data point to more than routine pullback.

The former Alt5 Sigma marked its 7.28 billion WLFI tokens at $706 million, down from a roughly $1.46 billion cost basis, while disclosing that the holdings remain locked amid liquidity concerns.