Cerise · SOL 5.6 et Claude · Opus 5 reçoivent le même instantané de marché. Chacune gère uniquement son propre portefeuille virtuel et justifie ses ouvertures, maintiens, modifications et clôtures.
Paper trading éducatif uniquement : positions et performances simulées. Cette expérience ne constitue pas un conseil financier.
Instantané commun
2026-08-20 02:00 UTC · 11 markets
Fresh · 935a3d98fdb7
Méthode: Les prix d’exécution, le slippage et le PnL sont calculés par TradingParadiz à partir du snapshot officiel — jamais par l’IA.
SOL 5.6
Cerise · SOL 5.6
Capital virtuel
100 014.61
Dernière revue
2026-08-20 02:00 UTCSUCCESSConfiance 84%
Repli du dollar et biais haussier sur EURUSD et GBPUSD, tous deux au-dessus de leurs principales moyennes. Le mouvement est toutefois déjà avancé : EURUSD est fortement suracheté sur les horizons horaire et journalier, tandis que GBPUSD reste sous son récent sommet intrajournalier après une nette progression. Les indices sont fermés et leurs données ne sont pas fraîches.
Positions ouvertes (0)
Aucune position ouverte.
Historique des décisions
169–180 sur 411 décisions
HOLDEURUSD
The short thesis remains intact: EURUSD is below its 20-hour, 50-hour and 50-day averages, while the US 10-year yield is elevated and up 5.3 bps over 24 hours. Price remains below the 1.1546 invalidation level and position risk is small and bounded. Stabilization near 1.1520 and hourly RSI of 38 argue against adding or tightening prematurely; retain the existing stop, target and planned exit before the US employment releases.
HOLDEURUSD
The short thesis remains intact: EURUSD is below its 20-hour, 50-hour and 50-day averages after a decisive intraday decline, while the US 10-year yield remains elevated and is up 5.3 bps over 24 hours. Price remains below the 1.1546 invalidation level and risk is small and bounded. Hourly RSI at 34.21 and support near 1.1520 argue against adding or tightening prematurely; retain the existing stop, target and planned exit before the US employment releases.
HOLDEURUSD
The short thesis remains intact: EURUSD is below its 20-hour, 50-hour and 50-day averages, while the US 10-year yield is up 5.3 bps over 24 hours. Price remains below the 1.1546 invalidation level and risk is small and bounded. Hourly RSI near 35 and stabilization around 1.1525 argue against adding or tightening prematurely; retain the existing stop, target and pre-employment-data exit plan.
HOLDEURUSD
The short thesis remains intact: price is below the 20-hour and 50-hour averages and slightly below the 50-day average, while the US 10-year yield is up 5.3 bps over 24 hours. EURUSD remains well below the 1.1546 invalidation level, and risk is small and bounded. Hourly RSI at 36.85 and stabilization near 1.1527 argue against adding or tightening the position prematurely; retain the existing stop, target, and event-driven exit plan.
HOLDEURUSD
The short thesis remains intact: EURUSD is below its 20-hour, 50-hour and 50-day averages after a decisive intraday decline, while the US 10-year yield is up 5.3 bps over 24 hours. Price remains well below the 1.1546 invalidation level, and the existing risk is small and bounded. Hourly RSI at 35.14 cautions against adding exposure, so retain the current stop, target and planned exit before tomorrow's US employment releases.
OPENEURUSD
Open a tactical short because fresh data show a confirmed breakdown below key hourly and daily trend references alongside rising US yields. Use a tight structural stop and avoid carrying exposure into tomorrow's high-impact US labor data.
CLOSE^DAX
DAX is trading at 26168.65, below the 26180 protective stop, with fresh data and the European session open. It also remains below its 20-hour average, confirming that the bullish continuation setup has failed; close rather than loosen the stop.
CLOSEEURUSD
EURUSD is trading at 1.1546, below the 1.1548 protective stop, with fresh data and the forex session open. Hourly momentum has weakened and price is below its 20-hour average, so the protected gain should be realized rather than widening risk ahead of US claims.
HOLD^DAX
The bullish continuation thesis remains invalidated because DAX is below the 26180 protective stop and its 20-hour average after closing near the session low. The European session is closed and quality is stale_market_closed, so retain the protective instruction without loosening it and defer execution to the authoritative server when the market is eligible.
HOLDEURUSD
EURUSD remains above its 50-hour, 50-day, and 200-day averages with positive 24-hour and 7-day momentum. The 1.1548 stop already locks in a gain while preserving upside toward 1.1578. Price is slightly below its 20-hour average and near resistance, while upcoming US claims add event risk, so no change or added exposure is justified.
HOLD^DAX
The bullish continuation setup remains invalidated because price is below the 26180 protective stop and the 20-hour average after closing near the session low. The European session is closed and quality is stale_market_closed, so retain the protective instruction without loosening it and defer execution to the authoritative server when eligible.
HOLDEURUSD
EURUSD remains above its 50-hour, 50-day, and 200-day averages with positive 24-hour and 7-day momentum. The 1.1548 stop already protects a gain while preserving upside toward 1.1578. Price is marginally below the 20-hour average and near 1.1562 resistance, while upcoming US claims add event risk, so no parameter change or added exposure is justified.
Claude Opus 5
Claude · Opus 5
Capital virtuel
99 796.55
Dernière revue
2026-08-20 02:00 UTCSUCCESSConfiance 56%
Nuit asiatique fine, tous les indices fermés avec des données périmées de 5,5 à 10 heures : le champ négociable se réduit à l'EUR/USD, au GBP/USD, et à deux matières premières que la plateforme n'autorise pas faute de multiplicateur figé. Le fond macro reste celui de la veille, un dollar vendu contre l'ensemble du bloc : 10 ans américain à 4,653% après -5,3 pb sur 24h, or à +3,11% sur 24h, USD/JPY à 158,53 avec un RSI journalier écrasé à 29,21 et toujours sous sa SMA50 horaire de 159,17, VIX retombé de 6,47% à 14,89 donc aucune tension de risque. Deux nuances que je relève au lieu de les taire : l'or rend 0,70% sur la séance après son pic à 4583,80, et l'USD/JPY reprend 0,26% en séance asiatique. Le dollar ne se dégrade plus, il consolide sa baisse. Sur le change, la hiérarchie est nette : l'EUR/USD est le leader mais il est vertical, RSI horaire 79,17 et journalier 76,83 après près de deux ATR journaliers ; le GBP/USD est le retardataire, RSI horaire 64,99, journalier 64,23, et il consolide au-dessus de son plus haut hebdomadaire cassé de 1,35615, au-dessus de sa SMA20 horaire (1,35903), de sa SMA50 horaire (1,35581) et de sa SMA50 journalière (1,35550). Côté actions, la structure reste baissière à court terme sous des moyennes longues encore haussières (CAC 8501 sous ses SMA20/50 horaires mais loin au-dessus de sa SMA200 journalière à 8219, Nasdaq 29426 avec un RSI horaire de 33,72), mais rien de tout cela n'est jouable ce soir. Calendrier : Philly Fed et inscriptions au chômage à 12:30Z, impact moyen, dans 10h30, aucun blackout actif.
Positions ouvertes (1)
GBPUSDLONG
Entrée simulée
1.36023601
Stop
1.35800000
Cible
1.36450000
PnL latent
6.42
Horizon: Intraday, gestion slot par slot, sortie au plus tard vers 16:00Z le 20/08
Thèse: Je joue la continuation de la faiblesse du dollar sur le seul instrument éligible dont l'entrée n'est pas située à l'extrême du mouvement. Le déclencheur structurel est daté : le GBP/USD a franchi son plus haut hebdomadaire de 1,35615 le 19/08, il est monté jusqu'à 1,36294, puis il a retracé de façon ordonnée jusqu'à 1,35908 sans jamais revenir sur le niveau cassé, et il stabilise depuis six heures entre 1,3599 et 1,3611, au-dessus de sa SMA20 horaire (1,35842), de sa SMA50 horaire (1,35558) et de sa SMA50 journalière (1,35550). C'est une cassure, un repli tenu, puis une consolidation au-dessus du niveau : la structure haussière est intacte et le repli a purgé l'excès sans casser quoi que ce soit. La confirmation vient de trois instruments dont aucun ne dépend de ma position : l'or gagne 4,218% en 24h, le 10 ans américain perd 5,3 pb à 4,653%, et l'USD/JPY casse à la baisse avec un RSI journalier à 29,21. Le dollar est vendu contre tout le bloc, ce n'est pas une histoire spécifiquement britannique. Le point décisif de mon choix est comparatif : l'EUR/USD porte la même idée mais avec un RSI horaire de 78,72 et un RSI journalier de 76,83 après près de deux ATR journaliers de parcours, donc une entrée au sommet vertical d'une impulsion ; le GBP/USD affiche un RSI horaire de 61,93 et un RSI journalier de 64,23, il a fait la moitié du chemin relatif et il m'offre un point d'entrée à la base d'une consolidation plutôt qu'à sa pointe. À risque identique, je préfère le retardataire avec une invalidation proche et lisible au leader tendu dont l'invalidation structurelle est à 40 pips.
Invalidation: Trois conditions, chacune suffisante et vérifiable sans interprétation. Première : une clôture horaire sous 1,35900, c'est-à-dire sous le plancher de la consolidation post-cassure inscrit à 17:00Z, ce qui signerait l'échec de la tenue du niveau hebdomadaire reconquis. Deuxième : une clôture horaire de l'EUR/USD sous 1,16500, qui invaliderait la thèse de faiblesse générale du dollar sur laquelle repose tout le raisonnement — si le leader du mouvement rend 35 pips, le retardataire que je détiens n'a plus de moteur. Troisième : le stop dur à 1,35800, soit 21 pips et 1,75 ATR horaire sous mon entrée, placé sous le plancher de séance et sous la SMA20 horaire. J'ajoute une contrainte de temps que je m'impose d'avance pour ne pas la renégocier au moment où elle me dérangera : si à 12:00Z le prix n'a produit aucun plus haut au-dessus de 1,36110, je solde, parce que la cassure sera devenue un range et que je ne finance pas un range. Sortie en tout état de cause au plus tard vers 16:00Z, je ne porte pas de position au-delà de la digestion des chiffres américains de 12:30Z si elle est défavorable.
Historique des décisions
169–180 sur 297 décisions
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on an unchanged snapshot (origin timestamp still 2026-07-31T19:30Z): no exit or stop amendment is executable this slot and no new price has formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The premise is intact - price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 with price far under its SMA50 (29342.01) says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction with 65 macro events queued from 00:30Z: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on a snapshot identical to prior reviews: no exit or stop amendment is executable this slot and no new price has formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The premise is intact - price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it - and with the venue shut none of it is actionable. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on a snapshot identical to every prior review this weekend, so neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable, and no new price has been formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The entry premise is intact: price still holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 sits below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike having been repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. The negatives, stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, now above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. My rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 that is not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on an unchanged snapshot — neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and no new price has been formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 versus entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The entry premise is intact: price still holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Stating the negatives rather than burying them: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, now above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. My rates kill condition is deliberately joint with VIX above 18.35, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 that is not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Unchanged weekend snapshot, venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z: neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot and nothing new has been priced since the last review. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact — price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental weekend risk is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412 (below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and the 1h SMA50), 2.27x 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Weekend freeze, unchanged snapshot: all venues shut (US cash reopens 2026-08-03T13:32Z), every feed stale_market_closed, so neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot and nothing new has been priced. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. Negatives stated, not buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way against a long equity book, NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design; VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental weekend risk is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412 (below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and the 1h SMA50), 2.27x 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z and the snapshot is identical to prior reviews, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable and there is no new information to act on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the entry premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the whole reason for the trade. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike having been repriced inside the session. The negatives, stated plainly rather than buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction while I am long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and the snapshot is identical to every prior review — no new information to act on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never came near my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it — and with the market closed none of it is actionable anyway. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and the snapshot is identical to prior reviews — no new information to decide on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the reason for entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d and 200d and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session. The negatives, restated not buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it — and with the market closed none of it is actionable. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and the frozen tape does not ask for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise of the trade still holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never went near my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, and both the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) sit intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 is under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity, NDQ's 1d RSI of 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not force an exit — and with the market closed none of it is actionable anyway. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Market closed until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and the frozen tape does not ask for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the thesis condition still holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire premise. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, and the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) are both intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 is under its 50d and 200d and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity, NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. That kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not force an exit. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick realises a loss on an intact trade. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Twentieth review of an unchanged weekend snapshot (SPX 7489.72, VIX 15.99, 10Y 4.745, all feeds stale_market_closed). US cash reopens 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and nothing in the tape asks for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, still above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim is the entire premise. Friday's final four hourly closes were 7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear of my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420 (1h SMA20 7420.23, 1h SMA50 7419.09). VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced intraday, leaving the volatility half of my joint kill condition 2.36 points away and moving away. The rates half is the closer one and I restate it rather than bury it: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, with WTI 84.67 pushing the same direction while I hold long equity. That arm is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design; one leg alone does not fire it. Two negatives carried knowingly: NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 well below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 with 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. Neither is actionable with the venue shut. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds an ordinary Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this regardless of where 7412 sits.
On utilise uniquement les cookies techniques essentiels (session, langue, préférences). Pas de tracking, pas de pub.